At the center of the disruption is the conflict involving Iran, which erupted in late February 2026 and quickly spread its effects beyond the region. What began as a geopolitical confrontation has now become a supply-chain crisis affecting farm productivity, food prices, and nutrition outcomes across multiple African countries.
How agrifood systems become vulnerable under global shocks
Modern agrifood systems depend on a tightly connected web of production, logistics, trade, policy, and investment decisions. As one analyst explains, agrifood systems are “the activities that connect the people, investments and decisions involved in producing and delivering food and agricultural goods.”
These systems are often resilient in the sense that they adapt under pressure, finding alternative suppliers or adjusting consumption patterns. But they are not immune. A disruption in one critical node—such as fertiliser exports—can ripple across continents, affecting planting decisions, harvest yields, and ultimately the affordability of food.
The current crisis demonstrates this fragility in stark terms.
Fertiliser routes disrupted as Gulf exports stall
Countries in the Gulf region play a central role in global fertiliser production, particularly nitrogen-based fertilisers like urea. Iran, in particular, is the fourth largest global exporter of urea and a key supplier to African markets including Nigeria, Ghana, Togo, Kenya, Tanzania, and parts of North Africa.
Urea is not only widely used but also one of the most cost-effective fertiliser inputs for farmers in low-income regions. Any disruption in its supply immediately translates into higher production costs and reduced farm efficiency.
The situation has worsened as Qatar—another major urea producer—halted production in early March 2026 after its gas infrastructure was damaged in missile strikes linked to the conflict. Since gas is essential for urea production, the shutdown has removed another major supplier from global markets.
Adding to the strain, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints, has reportedly fallen by 95% since the conflict began. Even fertiliser that is still being produced is now struggling to leave the region.
Africa’s heavy reliance on imported fertiliser exposed
Sub-Saharan Africa imports roughly 80% of its fertiliser, drawing supplies from Russia, Europe, India, China, Ukraine, and Gulf countries. This dependence leaves the region highly vulnerable to external shocks.
Some countries are especially exposed. Malawi, for instance, sources 52% of its fertiliser from Gulf suppliers. Others, including Nigeria, Morocco, and South Africa, not only import fertiliser but also rely on imported inputs to manufacture blended fertiliser for export and domestic use.
Prices have already begun to rise sharply. Unlike oil markets, however, there is no coordinated global reserve system for fertiliser. Once supply is interrupted, it does not quickly stabilise, creating prolonged pressure on farmers and food systems.
From global crises to local consequences: a researcher’s view
Recent research on agrifood systems highlights that Africa’s food challenges are not necessarily about availability, but about affordability, safety, and dietary diversity.
As one researcher involved in the work explains, “food in Africa is often available but not affordable, safe, or diverse enough to make up healthy diets.”
Over the past five decades, many African agricultural policies have prioritised staple crops such as maize, rice, and wheat. While these crops are essential for calories, they are not sufficiently nutrient-rich on their own. This focus has unintentionally limited the production and consumption of more diverse, nutrient-dense foods.
The fertiliser crisis now risks deepening these imbalances.
A history of repeated fertiliser shocks
This is not the first time African agriculture has faced fertiliser disruption. Between 2020 and 2024, supply chains were strained first by COVID-19 and then by the war in Ukraine. In response, many farmers reduced fertiliser application, which helped them survive short-term shortages but led to reduced yields and lower incomes.
Those earlier shocks exposed a structural weakness: fertiliser access is deeply tied to global geopolitics, shipping routes, and energy markets, rather than stable local production systems.
Adapting agriculture: ten pathways to resilience
Despite the severity of current disruptions, research suggests that African food systems can reduce vulnerability by shifting toward more diversified, nutrition-sensitive agricultural models.
Several high-impact strategies stand out:
Farm diversification into fruits, vegetables, pulses, and agroforestry systems can restore soil health while improving dietary quality. Home gardening, when supported with training and nutrition education, can strengthen household food security.
Expanding sustainable aquaculture, poultry, and livestock production can improve protein intake without heavy reliance on fertiliser-intensive crops.
Biofortified crops are already showing promise. Varieties such as high-iron beans in Rwanda and vitamin A-rich orange-fleshed sweet potatoes in Mozambique integrate nutrients directly into crops, reducing the need for external inputs.
Post-harvest improvements—including better storage, distribution, and handling systems—can reduce spoilage and improve food quality. Similarly, food fortification during processing can enhance nutrition without changing farming practices.
Social protection mechanisms, such as cash transfers and food vouchers, help households cope with rising prices, while school meal programmes provide a consistent nutritional safety net for children.
Innovation beyond fertiliser dependence
Experts argue that these interventions are most effective when implemented as integrated packages rather than isolated solutions. Gender dynamics also matter significantly, as intra-household food distribution does not always ensure that women benefit equally from improved food availability.
Looking ahead, scientific innovation may further transform agriculture’s relationship with fertiliser. Researchers at the Centre for Research on Programmable Plant Systems, including teams at Cornell University, are developing engineered “reporter” plants designed to give farmers real-time feedback on soil conditions.
One example is a tomato plant that “turns vivid red when soil nitrogen levels drop to critically low levels.” This type of biological sensing could help farmers apply fertiliser more precisely, reducing waste and lowering costs.
Such technologies suggest a future where crops themselves become diagnostic tools—embedding intelligence directly into agricultural systems and reducing dependence on volatile global input markets.
Building resilience in a volatile global system
The ongoing crisis in the Persian Gulf underscores a broader truth: Africa’s food security is tightly bound to global instability. While fertiliser remains essential in the short term, long-term resilience will depend on diversification, innovation, and nutrition-focused agricultural transformation.
The challenge now is not only to manage the current disruption, but to rethink how food systems are designed so they can withstand the next one.