Nigeria's crude oil exports generated an estimated N20.22 trillion in the first five months of 2026, as soaring global oil prices significantly boosted export earnings despite a decline in the volume of crude shipped abroad.
An analysis of crude oil production and export figures released by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) shows that the country exported approximately 148.9 million barrels of crude oil between January and May, with an estimated market value of $14.66 billion. Using an exchange rate of N1,380 to the US dollar, the exports translate to about N20.22 trillion.
The crude was exported by a mix of international oil companies, indigenous producers and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL), underscoring the continued importance of oil exports to Nigeria's foreign exchange earnings.
Although export volumes fell compared to the same period in 2025, stronger international crude prices more than compensated for the decline.
During the corresponding five-month period in 2025, Nigeria exported an estimated 154 million barrels valued at approximately $11.32 billion. While export volumes dropped by about 5.1 million barrels, representing a 3.3 per cent decline, export earnings increased by roughly $3.34 billion or 29.5 per cent year-on-year.
The increase was largely driven by a sharp rise in international crude prices, particularly between March and May.
CBN data further revealed that Nigeria produced a total of 216.85 million barrels of crude oil during the review period, with an estimated gross market value of $21.28 billion, equivalent to N29.36 trillion.
Production volumes rose steadily after a weaker February performance. Nigeria produced 45.26 million barrels in January, 36.68 million barrels in February, 42.78 million barrels in March, 44.70 million barrels in April and 47.43 million barrels in May.
Crude oil exports also followed a similar pattern, increasing from 31.31 million barrels in January to 33.48 million barrels in May after recording a temporary dip in February.
Based on prevailing average monthly Bonny Light crude prices, January exports were valued at approximately $2.13 billion, February at $1.74 billion, March at $3.06 billion, April at $3.95 billion and May at $3.77 billion.
On the production side, the estimated monthly market values stood at $3.08 billion in January, $2.65 billion in February, $4.54 billion in March, $5.67 billion in April and $5.34 billion in May.
The figures also indicate that average daily crude production improved over the five-month period, rising from 1.46 million barrels per day in January to 1.53 million barrels per day in May after falling to 1.31 million barrels per day in February.
Similarly, average daily crude exports climbed from 1.01 million barrels per day in January to 1.08 million barrels per day in May, despite dipping to 0.86 million barrels per day in February.
Overall, Nigeria exported about 68.7 per cent of its total crude oil production during the period, leaving roughly 67.95 million barrels available for domestic refining, operational requirements, storage and inventory management.
Global oil prices drive earnings
The surge in export earnings came largely on the back of higher international crude prices, which climbed sharply following geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Average crude prices stood at $68.05 per barrel in January and $72.33 in February before rising dramatically to $106.09 in March, $126.71 in April and $112.63 in May following disruptions linked to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz during the US-Iran conflict.
However, analysts note that these estimates represent the gross market value of Nigeria's crude production and exports rather than actual government earnings.
Actual revenue accruing to the government is reduced by production-sharing agreements, operational costs, taxes, royalties, domestic crude supply obligations and other commercial arrangements.
Domestic refineries face crude supply concerns
Despite the strong export earnings, concerns continue to mount over the availability of crude oil for domestic refining.
Data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) showed that domestic crude supply to local refineries declined to 15.84 million barrels in May, even though the country's refineries processed a combined 17.92 million barrels during the month.
Domestic crude allocations had increased steadily from 8.83 million barrels in January and 8.86 million barrels in February to 11.49 million barrels in March before peaking in April and easing slightly in May.
The situation has renewed concerns among local refiners, who argue that crude producers are prioritising exports over domestic supply, contrary to the Domestic Crude Supply Obligation (DCSO) provisions contained in the Petroleum Industry Act.
The issue has been at the centre of an ongoing dispute involving Dangote Petroleum Refinery, which recently accused the Federal Government and some of its agencies of frustrating its operations through inadequate crude supply—an allegation the government has denied.
In a recent affidavit filed before the Federal High Court in Lagos, the refinery argued that its operations depend heavily on crude supplied through arrangements with the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited.
According to the refinery, its business model is designed to purchase crude from the Federal Government through NNPCL, refine petroleum products locally and improve fuel availability for Nigerians.
The company, however, alleged that the government had failed to ensure adequate crude supplies for domestic refiners, describing the development as deliberate and detrimental to its investment.
Reacting to the development, the Publicity Secretary of the Crude Oil Refinery Owners Association of Nigeria (CORAN), Eche Idoko, said modular refinery operators largely rely on private supply agreements rather than government allocations.
"None of the modular refineries I know have gotten crude under the Federal Government arrangement. But I know that through private arrangements, the Edo refinery is getting it from Ingenti. Aradel is getting crude from EOP and a couple of other fields, too. Opac is getting from Pillar," he said.
Idoko urged the Federal Government to fully implement the Domestic Crude Supply Obligation and ensure that sufficient crude oil is made available to local refineries to strengthen Nigeria's refining capacity and reduce dependence on imported petroleum products.