The decision was reached on Sunday during a brief online meeting involving seven key members of the producer alliance: Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman.
The decision was broadly in line with market expectations, with analysts anticipating that the group would avoid making further significant adjustments to production policy until next year.
Despite the decision to keep official targets unchanged, actual output from several Gulf producers remains significantly below their assigned quotas, reflecting continued disruption to oil exports and uncertainty surrounding regional supply routes.
Gulf OPEC+ producers have been pumping well below their production targets as exports have been affected by disruptions linked to the US-Israeli war on Iran. Export flows have reportedly fluctuated between 60 per cent and 80 per cent of normal levels in recent months.
“The OPEC+ group of seven kept their production ceilings unchanged, in line with market expectations. That said, despite rising flows through the Strait of Hormuz, their output levels remain well below quota,” said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo.
“Consequently, the oil market remains tight.”
The decision comes against a backdrop of elevated oil prices. Brent crude fell on Friday after European leaders agreed to US President Donald Trump’s request to release diesel reserves, easing some immediate concerns about fuel availability.
Despite the decline, Brent crude remains above $100 a barrel, significantly higher than the roughly $73 a barrel recorded before the Iran war began in late February.
Output increases largely remain on paper
The OPEC+ alliance has spent much of 2026 gradually raising production targets after several years of supply restrictions.
However, the increases have not necessarily translated into equivalent increases in physical oil supplies, with conflict and export disruptions in the Middle East limiting the ability of some members to raise production and shipments.
The seven core members produced about 25 million barrels per day in August, according to OPEC data. That represented an increase of approximately 630,000 barrels per day from July.
Nevertheless, their combined output remained around 5 million barrels per day below levels recorded before the war in February.
The gap between official targets and actual production has become an important factor in assessing the state of the global oil market. Although OPEC+ has announced production increases, the volume of crude actually reaching international markets remains constrained by regional disruptions.
The group still has roughly 2 million barrels per day of production cuts in place covering most of its members.
Capacity review delayed
OPEC+ has also delayed a review of its members’ production capacity, a process that will be important in determining output quotas for 2027.
Industry sources told Reuters that the conflict involving Iran has made it more difficult to assess members’ future production potential, adding uncertainty to the review.
The capacity assessment is expected to help determine how future production increases will be allocated among members.
With the review delayed and the Middle East conflict continuing to disrupt supply estimates, sources have indicated that significant changes to OPEC+ output policy are unlikely before 2027.
The next meeting of the seven core members is scheduled for November 1.
Strait of Hormuz remains crucial
The Strait of Hormuz remains a key factor in the oil market outlook because of its importance to global energy shipments.
While flows through the strategic waterway have improved, production and exports from several OPEC+ members remain below their official targets.
The continued uncertainty has kept the physical oil market relatively tight, even as traders assess the impact of efforts by governments to increase fuel reserves and stabilise supplies.
OPEC+’s decision to maintain its November targets therefore leaves the market focused on two questions: how quickly regional oil exports can return to normal levels and whether the group will eventually be able to translate its announced production increases into actual additional supply.
A separate OPEC+ ministerial body, the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC), also met on Sunday to review developments in the oil market.
The JMMC monitors compliance and market conditions but does not have the authority to determine production policy.
For now, OPEC+ has opted for continuity, leaving November production targets untouched while the group waits for greater clarity on regional supply disruptions, members’ production capacity and the outlook for 2027.