The number of deaths rose by 690,000 to 11.1 million, more
than double the previous year’s increase. Demographers said the rise was driven
by the aging of the population and the widespread COVID-19 outbreaks that
started in December 2022 and continued into February of last year.
The total population stood at 1.4 billion, the statistics
bureau said. China, long the most populated country in the world, dropped into
second place behind India in 2023, according to U.N. estimates.
The falling births reflect a decline in the fertility rate
that is a long-term economic and societal challenge for China. Women are having
fewer babies despite government incentives and the easing of its one-child
policy in recent years to allow up to three children.
The lower fertility rate, together with people living longer
because of better health care, means China is slowly growing older, something
that could slow economic growth over time and challenge the government’s
finances and its ability to provide for a larger elderly population with fewer
workers.
Experts expect the population decline to continue for
decades, even if the fertility rate rebounds.
Demographer Zuo Xuejin, former executive vice president of
the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences., estimated that the proportion of the
population that is 65 or older could double to more than 30% by 2050.
The government issued guidelines earlier this week on
developing the “silver” economy and enhancing the well-being of older people.
They included expanding geriatric hospital and nursing care, encouraging the
development of clothing, food and other products suitable for older people,
cracking down on scams that target the elderly and making it easier to operate
a TV.
The number of births fell by 540,000, or 5.6%, which was
smaller than the double-digit percent drops the previous three years. The 9
million babies born in 2023 were less than half the total in 2016. All the
figures are estimates based on surveys and do not include Hong Kong and Macao.
China conducts a full census every 10 years.
China, which once sought to control population growth with
its one-child policy, is now facing the opposite problem. The government has
sought to encourage births since gradually easing the policy over 2014 to 2016
to allow a second child and then a third child in 2021, but with little
success.
Many people are delaying marriage or choosing not to have
children. Even those who do often have only one child because of the high cost
of educating children in cities in a highly competitive academic environment.
The population of women of child-bearing age has also fallen.
Local governments are offering incentives for new children.
A municipality in China’s Inner Mongolia region has started offering payments
of 2,000 yuan ($280) for a second child and 5,000 yuan ($700) for a third, as
well as requiring that employers give an extra 60 and 90 days of paid maternity
leave for the second and third child respectively, according to an online
report by state-owned China National Radio.
President Xi Jinping told the new leadership of the
All-China Women’s Federation last October that it is necessary to strengthen
the guidance of young people’s views on marriage, parenthood and family and
promote policies that support parenthood and cope with the aging of the
population, according to a report on a government website.
“We must tell good stories about family customs, guide women
to play a unique role in promoting the traditional virtues of the Chinese
nation ... and create a new culture of family civilization,” he was quoted as
saying.
The working-age population, defined as those between 16 and
59 years old, fell to 61% of the total population, continuing a gradual
decline. The proportion of those aged 60 and older ticked up to 21%. The
official retirement age in China is 60 years old for men and 50 or 55 for
women.
It is not clear how many people died from COVID-19 because
of the sudden end to China’s “zero-COVID” restrictions in December 2022. The
government has reported about 80,000 COVID-related deaths from early December
to mid-February but experts believe the total was much higher. Studies have
estimated deaths could have reached 1.4 million or 1.9 million.
The drop in population is expected to be less this year,
because of the waning effects of the pandemic and the fact that the year of the
dragon, which begins in February, is considered an auspicious year to have
children, an expert said at a forum earlier this week, according to the
English-language state-owned China Daily newspaper.
But Yuan Xin, a professor at Nankai University and
vice-president of the China Population Association, added that “the downward
trend in China’s total population is bound to be long-term and become an
inherent characteristic.” -AP
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