On Monday, Airbus increased its 20-year market outlook for commercial aircraft due to the modernization of long-haul fleets by numerous airlines and the growing popularity of air travel in Asia’s expanding economies.
In their annual report on jet industry trends, the world’s
leading aircraft manufacturer projected a significant expansion of the global
fleet over the next two decades. It is anticipated that the number of aircraft
in operation will more than double, reaching an estimated 48,230 planes.
Airbus has forecasted industry-wide deliveries of 42,430 new
aircraft over the upcoming two decades, encompassing 41,490 passenger jets.
Both figures have experienced a 4% increase since the preceding survey.
Airbus categorizes its demand projections into two segments:
single-aisle aircraft, which are the most popular models in the industry, and
wide-body jets for long-haul flights.
The steady Improvement in the range and performance of
single-aisle aircraft has encroached upon the market share previously dominated
by larger aircraft, thereby contributing to the transformation of transatlantic
travel.
The report coincides with the imminent certification of the
planemaker’s long-range, single-aisle A321XLR. In response, Boeing is
developing an extended-range variant of its 737 MAX.
Following a sustained period of inactivity, the demand for
larger wide-body aircraft is rapidly increasing as airlines seek to restore
their capacity. Consequently, the most notable adjustments in Airbus’ forecast
pertain to the long-haul fleet.
Airbus has increased its total wide-body demand forecast by
9% to 8,920 units. This increase is primarily driven by double-digit growth in
South America and North America. However, Airbus has reduced its forecast for
the Middle East by 2% due to concerns about overcapacity in the region, which
is a significant market for wide-body aircraft due to the presence of major
connecting hubs.
The total demand forecast for wide-body jets included 940
large freighters, representing a 2% increase from the previous report.
The demand forecast for single-aisle passenger aircraft,
such as the Airbus A320 and Boeing 737 series, which operate in the short to
medium-range segment, has been revised upwards by 3% to 33,510 units.
The aircraft manufacturer's projections are based on
economic forecasts indicating that 1.7 billion individuals will join the middle
class, with disposable income for air travel, over the next two decades.
"We see particularly strong growth in Asia and the
Middle East, led particularly by India and China," said Bob Lange, head of
market analysis and forecasts at Airbus. "Domestic China (traffic) will
overtake the U.S.," he added.
The data presented in the Airbus report indicates a
significant shift in focus towards India, the most populous country in the
world. Notably, the three most rapidly expanding traffic flows are all directed
towards the Indian subcontinent.
However, predictions of a resurgence in aviation growth
post-pandemic have placed the industry in conflict with environmental
organizations that question its track record in addressing climate change.
Airbus maintained that the delivery of new jets would
contribute to reduced emissions, complementing the advancement of more
environmentally friendly fuels.