Stocks, Treasury prices, and commodities all surged as
traders increased the likelihood of a half-point rate cut from the Fed to 41%,
up from approximately 14% the previous day, after articles in the Financial
Times and Wall Street Journal described the decision as "a close
call."
Former New York Fed President Bill Dudley, speaking at a
forum in Singapore, stated, "there's a strong case for 50."
City Index market strategist Fiona Cincotta remarked,
"I had been firmly in the 25-basis point camp until now. This is actually
making me think they might go 50."
She added, "It feels like a coin toss now, which is
reflected in the market's reactions in bonds, the yen, the U.S. dollar, and
gold." The dollar fell by as much as 0.97% to 140.415 yen, marking its
weakest level since December 28 of last year, and was last down 0.77% at
140.68.
The yen has also gained support this week from hawkish
remarks by Bank of Japan officials, with policy board member Naoki Tamura
expressing concerns about rising inflation risks.
The dollar index, which gauges the currency against the yen
and five other major currencies, dropped to a one-week low of 101.00.
Benchmark 10-year Treasuries saw a rally, resulting in a 4.2
basis point decrease in yields to 3.638%, while two-year yields, sensitive to
interest rate changes, fell by 6.8 basis points to 3.585%.
Commonwealth Bank of Australia strategist Carol Kong noted
that the current market pricing for Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) easing
is overly optimistic.
"We continue to favor a 25 basis point cut over a 50
basis point cut, as the labor market and the broader economy remain
resilient," she stated in a note.
"Current market pricing is aggressive compared to the
average FOMC rate-cutting cycle outside of recessions. We, along with the
consensus of U.S. economists, do not anticipate a recession in the U.S.
economy."
Global equities experienced a fifth consecutive day of
increases, rising by 0.2%, largely driven by positive performance in Europe,
where the STOXX 600 index surged by 0.4%, positioning itself for a weekly gain
of 2.6%, the highest in a month.
The euro appreciated by 0.13% to $1.1087, building on
Thursday's 0.57% increase, following comments from European Central Bank
President Christine Lagarde, who tempered expectations for an interest rate cut
in October after a widely anticipated quarter-point reduction on Thursday.
Gold is on track for its most significant weekly increase
since mid-August, climbing 2.8% to a record high of $2,570 per ounce, fueled by
a weakening dollar, and was last seen up 0.4% at $2,568 per ounce.
The MSCI index tracking Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan
rose by 0.53%. Japan, mainland China, and South Korea are entering extended
weekends, with Tokyo reopening on Tuesday, China on Wednesday, and South Korea
on Thursday. U.S. stock futures increased by 0.1%, following gains in the cash
indexes on Thursday.
Crude oil prices continued to rise after a nearly 2% surge
overnight, as producers evaluated the impact on production following Hurricane
Francine's passage through the Gulf of Mexico. U.S. West Texas Intermediate
crude futures climbed 0.51% to $69.32 per barrel, extending Thursday's 2.5%
increase, while Brent crude futures rose 0.5% to $72.30 after a 1.9% rise the
previous day.