When the U.S. imposed a blanket 10% tariff on all Chinese imports, China retaliated with its own tariffs, including a 15% tax on LNG and a 10% tax on U.S. crude oil imports.
In 2024, U.S. crude made up about 5% of China's total crude oil imports, with Chinese refiners bringing in around 166,000 barrels per day (bpd) of American crude, based on vessel-tracking data from Kpler mentioned by Reuters.
There's a strong belief that China will cut back or completely stop importing U.S. crude because of the tariff.
This could lead to a drop in overall global demand for U.S. oil, as noted by Kpler.
In 2023, U.S. crude exports reached a record high of over 4 million bpd, and they remained pretty stable last year, according to trade flow tracking.
Kpler's estimates show that American crude exports only saw a slight increase last year, rising by just 24,000 bpd to an average of 3.8 million bpd in 2024.
It seems like U.S. crude exports might be hitting their peak, and "China's retaliatory tariffs could just speed that process up," said Kpler analyst Matt Smith to Reuters.
American seaborne exports averaged 3.9 million bpd in 2024, which is down from 4 million bpd in 2023, according to Vortexa's data.
"U.S. crude exports began to stagnate in the latter half of 2024, with the U.S., the top exporter, showing signs of a slowdown," noted Rohit Rathod, Senior Oil Market Analyst at Vortexa, last month.
This year, U.S. crude exports could drop to 3.6 million bpd, especially if the Trump Administration moves forward with tariffs on Mexico and Canada—currently on hold until March 4—and if more of the U.S. medium sour grades, like Mars and Southern Green Canyon, are reserved for domestic refining, Rathod told Reuters.