In a speech delivered at the National Open University of Nigeria, Adesina cautioned that the escalating tariff regime initiated by the United States—particularly under the administration of President Donald Trump—could severely disrupt Africa’s economic landscape. He emphasized that the ripple effects of these tariffs are already threatening to undermine foreign exchange earnings, while jeopardizing access to critical trade relationships.
“Inflation will rise as the cost of imports increases, and weakened currencies will compound the strain on national budgets,” Adesina said. “This will significantly escalate the cost of debt servicing at a time when government revenues are under pressure.”
The broader economic implications are already being felt, as investors and governments recalibrate in response to a fluctuating global trade environment. Of particular concern are the consequences for 47 African nations that now face the threat of steeper trade barriers, potentially curbing their ability to export goods to Western markets.
Adesina’s remarks also cast doubt on the renewal of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA)—a pivotal U.S. trade initiative offering duty-free access to 35 African countries, which is set to expire this year. “The likelihood of renewal and extension is extremely low,” he said, noting that countries like Lesotho and Madagascar, which rely heavily on exports of textiles, diamonds, and vanilla, could be severely affected.
Beyond trade, Adesina addressed deeper structural challenges facing the continent, including declining foreign aid, shifting geopolitical interests, and the continent’s place in the global financial system. He argued that the existing international frameworks have failed to meet Africa’s needs, particularly on issues related to climate financing, development funding, and equitable trade.
“The old development models no longer work,” he said, referencing the scaling back of USAID and cuts to European development assistance. However, he was quick to pivot away from dependency narratives: “Africa must not rely on aid. It must create the right environment for its youth to thrive—right here on the continent.”
Looking ahead, Adesina called for strategic repositioning in how Africa engages with the global race for critical minerals and rare earth elements, warning that much of the continent’s mineral wealth is still exported in raw form and processed overseas. “Africa must move up the value chain,” he urged, calling for increased investment in local processing and manufacturing capacity.
Though nearing the end of his term at the helm of the AfDB, Adesina’s address offered a sweeping vision for Africa’s future—one that stresses self-reliance, strategic engagement with global powers, and a decisive break from outdated economic dependencies.
As global trade norms shift and traditional partnerships are tested, the continent’s ability to navigate this complex terrain will determine its economic trajectory for decades to come.