This decisive strategy builds upon the bloc's previously stated, non-binding objective to eliminate all Russian fossil fuel imports by 2027, a target set in the aftermath of the 2022 Ukrainian invasion. The forthcoming EU Commission plan will reportedly include a firm commitment to propose a legal ban in June on any new Russian gas import agreements, including spot market contracts, with the aim of enacting this ban by the end of 2025.
Furthermore, the roadmap will contain a commitment to put forward a concrete legal proposal mandating the cessation of all Russian gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports under current contracts by the end of 2027. These legal proposals will necessitate the approval of both the European Parliament and a reinforced majority of the 27 EU member states to come into effect.
It's important to note that while the EU has already imposed sanctions on Russian coal and seaborne oil shipments, gas has remained largely untouched due to the opposition of member states like Slovakia and Hungary. These nations heavily rely on Russian pipeline supplies and have voiced concerns that transitioning to alternative suppliers would lead to a significant surge in domestic energy prices. The requirement for unanimous approval for EU sanctions has historically complicated efforts to target Russian gas.
Despite these challenges, the EU has already made considerable progress in reducing its dependence on Russian gas. In 2024, approximately 19% of Europe's gas originated from Russia, primarily through the TurkStream pipeline and LNG shipments.
This is a substantial decrease from the roughly 40% share Russia held before the 2022 invasion. However, many European buyers remain bound by "take-or-pay" contracts with the Russian energy giant Gazprom, obligating them to pay for contracted volumes even if they refuse delivery.
Recognizing this hurdle, the European Commission has been actively exploring legal avenues that would allow European companies to terminate their existing Russian gas contracts without incurring substantial financial penalties. While the EU officials privy to the plans did not elaborate on the specific mechanisms being considered, legal experts suggest that invoking "force majeure" to exit these deals could be legally complex, potentially exposing buyers to penalties or arbitration.
Data from Rystad Energy indicates that uncontracted "spot" purchases constituted around 31% of the Russian LNG acquired by Europe in the past year, highlighting the continued reliance on short-term market dynamics.
As the EU strives to disentangle itself from decades-long energy ties with Russia, the European Commission has also signaled a willingness to increase its imports of U.S. LNG. This aligns with past calls from a former U.S. President who urged Europe to reduce its trade surplus with the United States by purchasing more American LNG.
The Commission remains acutely aware of the potential impact on energy prices and has stated that any measures designed to restrict Russian energy imports must inflict more economic damage on Moscow than on the EU itself, while also carefully considering the effects on consumer fuel costs.
Interestingly, the U.S. has been advocating for a peaceful resolution to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Should a peace agreement be reached, it could potentially lead to a reopening of the door for Russian energy supplies to Europe and a possible easing of sanctions. This geopolitical uncertainty reportedly contributed to the European Commission's decision to delay the publication of its energy roadmap, which was initially slated for March.
The EU's commitment to phasing out Russian gas by 2027 represents a pivotal moment in its energy policy, underscoring its determination to enhance its energy security, diversify its supply sources, and reduce its financial contributions to Russia amidst the ongoing geopolitical crisis.
The successful implementation of this ambitious plan will require the unified support of all member states and a resolute commitment to navigating the legal and economic complexities involved.