China, the world’s largest buyer of liquefied natural gas (LNG), is expected to see a rare annual decline in LNG imports in 2025, as domestic supply, mild weather, and weakening industrial demand temper the country’s appetite for the fuel. The pullback could ripple across global energy markets, pressuring Asian spot prices and increasing the availability of LNG on the international stage.
Revised forecasts from five research institutions suggest that China’s LNG imports could drop between 6% and 11% this year, falling short of the 76.65 million metric tons imported in 2024. This marks a significant shift from earlier projections that anticipated record-breaking imports on the back of Beijing’s economic stimulus efforts.
Instead, structural headwinds are emerging. Analysts point to a slump in China’s industrial activity, dented by U.S. tariffs and persistent weakness in consumer confidence, as reflected in consecutive monthly declines in the consumer price index. “The drop in exports, combined with subdued consumer sentiment, is feeding directly into lower gas demand,” said Xiong Wei, an analyst at Rystad Energy.
The downturn in industrial gas consumption is further amplified by a relatively mild winter and increased reliance on more affordable alternatives—namely, domestic natural gas and pipeline imports. This shift in preference is underscoring the growing competitiveness of pipeline suppliers and China’s maturing domestic gas production.
From January to April 2025, China imported just 20 million metric tons of LNG, a sharp fall from nearly 29 million tons during the same period in 2024, according to Chinese customs data. Even if imports rebound in the second half of the year, analysts argue it will not be sufficient to offset the shortfall. “Even with a sudden and sharp rebound in the second half, it wouldn’t be enough to offset the weakness seen so far,” said Yuanda Wang, senior analyst at ICIS.
Rystad estimates that gas demand from China’s industrial and chemical sectors will decline by around 1% this year—a striking contrast to the usual annual growth of 10 to 15 billion cubic meters (bcm), as noted by Kpler analysts.
China's declining appetite is already being felt by major LNG exporters. Imports from top suppliers—including Australia, Malaysia, and Russia—fell more than 20% year-on-year during the January–April period. Australia, still China’s largest LNG supplier in 2025, saw its shipments to China drop 24% to 6.38 million tons.
Interestingly, data from Kpler indicates that the decline was driven mostly by reduced volumes from long-term contracts, while spot market purchases remained relatively stable. This suggests Chinese buyers are exercising flexibility in existing agreements while avoiding new long-term commitments amid market uncertainty.
This year's anticipated decline would mark only the second drop in Chinese LNG imports over the past decade, the first being in 2022 during pandemic lockdowns. Imports had peaked in 2021 at nearly 79 million tons, nearly triple 2014 levels.
While the long-term trajectory of China’s gas demand remains upward due to energy transition goals and urbanization, the current slowdown highlights the sector's sensitivity to broader macroeconomic forces—and signals potential oversupply risks for LNG exporters relying on Chinese demand to drive growth.