Rebased GDP Signals Economic Surge and Stronger Growth Outlook
Nigeria is set to upstage Algeria as Africa’s third-largest economy by Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2025, according to projections released by the National Orientation Agency (NOA). The agency made this forecast following a significant recalculation of the country’s GDP, which reflected a 38 per cent increase in national output and a broader economic base.
The projection was published in the 52nd edition of The Explainer, NOA’s weekly publication, which highlights key economic and social developments in Nigeria. The agency credited the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) for conducting the GDP rebasing exercise that now places Nigeria closer to Algeria in the African economic rankings.
GDP Rebasing Lifts Nigeria’s Economic Profile
According to the NOA, Nigeria’s rebased GDP figure for 2024 stands at ₦372.8 trillion, translating to $243.7 billion using prevailing exchange rates. This marks a significant leap from the previous GDP estimate of $187.8 billion, driven by the inclusion of new and previously underrepresented sectors such as e-commerce, solid minerals, and informal trade.
By contrast, Algeria’s nominal GDP for 2024 is pegged at $247.63 billion, placing Nigeria within striking distance. If current trends hold, Nigeria is projected to surpass Algeria during the first quarter of 2025 to become Africa’s third-largest economy, behind Egypt and South Africa.
Sector Contributions Highlight Shifting Economic Structure
The rebased figures also reveal notable changes in the structure of Nigeria’s economy:
- Services: 53.09%
- Agriculture: 25.83%
- Industry: 21.08%
This composition points to continued expansion in the services sector—driven by telecommunications, fintech, creative industries, and digital services—while agriculture and industry maintain substantial shares of the economy.
Growth Despite Exchange Rate Challenges
The NOA acknowledged that the depreciation of the naira has weighed on dollar-denominated GDP figures, yet it emphasized that the economy grew 81.8 per cent in nominal terms between 2019 and 2024. The agency said this reflects “the strength of Nigeria’s informal economy and increasing economic diversification,” despite macroeconomic challenges such as inflation and currency volatility.
Implications for Policymakers and Investors
The GDP rebasing exercise underscores the need for improved data-driven policymaking and more inclusive economic planning. By formally recognizing contributions from informal and emerging sectors, the NBS has offered a clearer view of Nigeria’s economic potential.
For investors and development partners, the updated figures may serve as a signal of renewed opportunity in a rapidly diversifying economy with significant untapped potential.
NOA’s Strategic Messaging on Economic Optimism
The publication of these projections by the NOA—which operates under the Ministry of Information and National Orientation—appears to be part of a broader government communication strategy aimed at shaping public confidence in the economy.
Minister of Information and NOA editorial board chair, Mohammed Idris, has previously emphasized the importance of putting “Nigeria at the centre of every kobo the government spends,” echoing the administration’s Renewed Hope doctrine and promoting locally driven growth.
Conclusion
With the GDP rebasing revealing a more robust and diverse economy than previously understood, Nigeria is on course to reclaim a stronger position on the continental economic ladder. If it overtakes Algeria in early 2025 as projected, the milestone will not only be symbolic but could also reset global perceptions of Nigeria’s investment potential and macroeconomic resilience.