Previously, West Africa heavily depended on fuel imports from Europe and other regions. “With the Dangote refinery online, we see a lot of gasoil or diesel and jet fuel exported, meeting West African and Central African demands, with surplus jet fuel reaching far-flung destinations,” Clark noted. However, he cautioned that disruptions, such as outages or maintenance, could reintroduce volatility to supply chains.
The refinery’s impact has also shifted trade dynamics, with Lomé, Togo, emerging as a key hub for fuel imports into Africa. Mrs. Ogechi Nkwoji, Head of Economic Intelligence, Research, and Regulation at MEMAN, explained in her presentation, “Demystifying the Lomé Petroleum Market,” that Lomé serves as an offshore hub where large fuel cargoes are stored and redistributed to regional buyers, particularly in Nigeria.
Global fuel markets remain under pressure from geopolitical events, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Middle East tensions, alongside weakened European demand due to inflation and slower economic growth, Clark added. Matthew Tracey-Cook, a senior price reporter at S&P Global, noted that an outage at Dangote’s Fluid Catalytic Cracking unit in August caused gasoline crack spreads to spike from $13 to over $17 per barrel, underscoring the refinery’s growing influence on the Atlantic basin’s fuel markets.
