The projection underpins the U.S. oil giant’s long-term investment strategy, which remains more aggressive than many of its peers. Exxon plans to increase production by 18% within five years, betting that fossil fuels will continue to play a dominant role in the global energy mix.
According to the outlook:
Oil demand is expected to plateau after 2030, though consumption will remain above 100 million barrels per day through 2050.
Oil and natural gas combined will account for 55% of the global energy mix by 2050, only slightly down from today’s 56%.
Gasoline demand will shrink by 25% due to the rise of electric vehicles, while demand for diesel and jet fuel will stay robust, driven by freight transport and aviation.
Chris Birdsall, Exxon’s director of economics, energy and strategic planning, said natural gas will play a central role in displacing coal in industrial use:
“It’s a great way to provide the industrial power that’s needed, but at the same time reduce some of the emissions challenges with coal.”
Still, Exxon acknowledged that its projections fall short of the United Nations’ net-zero emissions goal by 2050. The company expects global carbon dioxide output to decline to 27 billion metric tons by mid-century, about 25% lower than current levels—but more than double the UN’s target.
Exxon stressed that further progress will depend on scaling affordable low-carbon technologies and implementing policies that balance emissions cuts with energy affordability and supply stability.
The findings highlight the tension between the world’s push for decarbonization and continued reliance on oil and gas, even as renewable energy and electric vehicles gain ground.