Two years after the removal of petrol subsidies, Nigeria’s fuel consumption patterns remain a mirror of its economic struggles and shifting energy landscape. Latest data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) shows that consumers spent about N1.3 trillion on Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) in June 2025, equivalent to 1.44 billion litres trucked nationwide.
The figure marks a 16.4% drop from May’s 1.77 billion litres, reflecting both subdued demand and continued efforts to curb cross-border smuggling. On a daily basis, Nigerians consumed roughly 48 million litres in June, down by a third compared to 2023 levels, when subsidies were still in place.
President Bola Tinubu’s decision in May 2023 to scrap subsidies—long criticized as costly and distortionary—was aimed at freeing public funds for infrastructure, health, and education. But the immediate effect was painful: pump prices jumped from around N200 per litre to highs of N1,200 before local refining helped pull them back. By June, average prices hovered near N900, aided by supply from the Dangote Refinery.
Regional Disparities
Fuel use continues to vary sharply across states. Lagos, Nigeria’s commercial hub, topped the list with 205.7 million litres in June (worth N185.1 billion). Other high-consuming states included Ogun (88.7 million litres), the Federal Capital Territory (77.5 million litres), and Oyo (72.8 million litres). These figures reflect dense populations, industrial activity, and heavy reliance on petrol-powered generators due to chronic power shortages.
At the other end, Jigawa (9.4 million litres), Ebonyi (10.5 million litres), Yobe (11.7 million litres), and Bayelsa (11.9 million litres) recorded the lowest allocations, underlining the rural-urban divide in fuel demand.
Zone by zone, the South-West led with 452.9 million litres (N407.7 billion), followed by the North-Central (247.4 million litres) and the North-West (230 million litres). The South-East recorded the lowest regional total at 132.7 million litres (N119.6 billion).
Local Refining Gains, Import Dependence Persists
Despite the Dangote Refinery’s growing role, Nigeria remains reliant on imports. In June, local refining supplied 30.8% of petrol (455 million litres), while imports covered nearly 70%. Dangote has since reduced ex-depot prices to N820 per litre and begun deploying 4,000 compressed natural gas (CNG) trucks for distribution—part of a wider push to cut transport costs and smuggling.
Dangote has argued that Nigerians now pay just over half of regional fuel prices, with pump costs still far lower than Ghana (N2,098/litre) or Benin (N1,902/litre). The refinery has also exported over one million tonnes of petrol in under two months, positioning Nigeria closer to net exporter status.
Inflation and Public Perception
But the wider economic impact remains severe. Inflation stood at 21.9% in July, slightly down from June but up 33% year-on-year, driven by higher transport and food prices. Simulations suggest the subsidy removal’s price shock could keep inflation elevated for nearly two years, eroding household purchasing power—particularly in rural areas.
Critics, including former Minister Obiageli Ezekwesili, have argued that while the reform was necessary, it was poorly executed and left the poor most exposed. Public sentiment remains sour: an Afrobarometer survey found 85% of Nigerians disapprove of the removal, with 58% preferring a return to subsidies even if it reduces spending on health and education.
Looking Ahead
Government initiatives such as the Presidential CNG Program—which allows vehicle owners to convert to gas at lower upfront costs—aim to reduce reliance on petrol and cut transport expenses by up to 70%. Still, experts warn that without stronger electricity supply, expanded local refining, and targeted social support, the benefits of subsidy removal risk being overshadowed by persistent inflation and inequality.
For now, consumption has stabilized around 45–50 million litres per day. The challenge, analysts note, is ensuring that fuel sector reforms translate into broader energy security and inclusive growth—rather than deepening the economic strains faced by ordinary Nigerians.