The Geneva-based body said lower trade costs and higher productivity, driven by AI applications, could lift global trade volumes by 34–37% under different scenarios. At the same time, world GDP could expand by 12–13% over the next two decades if the technology is effectively integrated into economic systems.
“AI could be a bright spot for trade in an increasingly complex trading environment,” said WTO Deputy Director General Johanna Hill, highlighting how automation and digital tools are reshaping cross-border commerce.
The WTO’s annual World Trade Report pointed to several areas where AI could deliver efficiencies — from logistics and regulatory compliance to supply chain management and real-time translation tools. For smaller producers and retailers, such innovations could make communication across markets faster and cheaper, enabling them to enter global value chains more easily. The report estimated that low-income countries could increase export growth by up to 11% if they improve digital infrastructure to harness AI opportunities.
But the organization also cautioned against complacency. “The effects of the development and deployment of AI are raising concerns that many workers, and even entire economies, could be left behind,” the report noted, stressing that countries with weak digital readiness could lose competitiveness.
Director General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, speaking at the report’s launch in Geneva, urged governments to invest in education, skills, retraining, and social safety nets to help societies adapt to the technology’s disruptive effects. “AI could upend labor markets, transforming some jobs whilst displacing others,” she said.
The WTO also underlined the need for predictable global trade rules and lower tariffs on inputs critical to AI, such as semiconductors, to ensure widespread benefits. The warning comes at a turbulent moment for the global trading system, which has faced fresh strains this year following new tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration.
The report underscores a dual reality: AI could supercharge global trade flows and efficiency, but without targeted policies and international cooperation, it risks widening the gap between advanced economies and developing nations.