Public policy analyst Rotimi Matthew described the proposed tariff as “a poorly conceived plan” that contradicts the government’s stated goal of energy security and affordability. In a detailed statement, Matthew accused policymakers of pursuing protectionism under the guise of reform, warning that the move could trigger another round of fuel scarcity and inflation.
“The Dangote Petroleum Refinery currently produces far below Nigeria’s 66 million-litre daily demand, yet the government wants to tax the imports that actually keep vehicles running,” he wrote. “Nothing says energy security like eliminating your backup supply before your primary source works.”
Matthew faulted the government’s claim that imported fuel undercuts local refining, arguing that true competition—not protectionism—should drive efficiency.
“Our $20 billion refinery can’t compete with imported fuel, so instead of fixing the issues, the government is kneecapping competition,” he stated. “Global refineries thrive on scale and transparency, not on tariffs that punish efficiency.”
He further debunked the notion that the new tariff would make fuel more affordable, describing it as “the memo’s boldest lie.” According to his calculations, a 15 per cent import duty could raise pump prices by N95 to N100 per litre, which could climb to N140–N165 after accounting for logistics, storage, and marketing costs.
“Food prices will soar, transport fares will climb, and small businesses will close. Yet the government calls this affordability,” he said.
Matthew also alleged inconsistencies in the current market structure, pointing out that some marketers reportedly sell products from the Dangote Refinery at N100–N120 above import parity prices, despite claims that imports undermine local refining. He further noted that the refinery itself imports blending components for production, calling the government’s stance hypocritical.
“This tariff plan is nothing more than an attempt to legislate monopoly pricing under the guise of public interest,” he warned. “If this policy passes, it won’t be reform — it will be a heist, and the government will have held the door open.”
A major fuel marketer, who spoke on condition of anonymity, echoed Matthew’s concerns, saying that ordinary Nigerians would bear the brunt of the proposed tariff.
“The masses will suffer the price increase once this takes effect. Local refiners think it’s protection, but in reality, it’s more revenue for the government at the people’s expense,” the dealer said.
The proposed 15 per cent duty—reportedly justified by government officials as a step toward market stability and national energy security—has ignited widespread debate within the petroleum industry. Critics insist that unless domestic refining capacity improves significantly, any tariff on fuel imports will only drive up costs, tighten supply, and entrench monopolistic control in the market.