The multilateral lender projects a 7 percent drop in prices in both 2025 and 2026, with energy, food, and some industrial commodities all expected to lose value. Although the downward trend is easing inflation pressures worldwide, prices still remain higher than before the COVID-19 pandemic—23 percent above 2019 levels in 2025, and 14 percent higher by 2026.
“Commodity markets are helping to stabilise the global economy,” said Indermit Gill, the World Bank Group’s Chief Economist and Senior Vice President for Development Economics. “Falling energy prices have contributed to the decline in global consumer-price inflation. But this respite will not last. Governments should use it to get their fiscal house in order, make economies business-ready, and accelerate trade and investment.”
Energy markets are leading the decline. The World Bank projects that the global oil surplus—already significantly higher in 2025—will rise further next year to about 65 percent above its last peak in 2020. Slower oil demand, driven by the global shift toward electric and hybrid vehicles and plateauing consumption in China, is expected to push Brent crude prices from an average of $68 in 2025 to $60 in 2026, the lowest in five years. Overall, energy prices could fall by 12 percent in 2025 and another 10 percent in 2026.
Food commodities are also trending downward, though less sharply. Global food prices are forecast to ease by 6.1 percent in 2025 and by 0.3 percent the following year, aided by record soybean production and easing trade tensions. Rice and wheat prices have declined, improving affordability in developing economies. However, fertilizer prices—expected to surge by 21 percent in 2025 before falling by 5 percent in 2026—pose a challenge for farmers, threatening profit margins and future crop yields.
In contrast, precious metals are enjoying an exceptional boom. Gold prices are projected to rise by 42 percent in 2025 and another 5 percent in 2026, driven by safe-haven demand and sustained central bank purchases. Silver is on a similar trajectory, with a 34 percent rise expected this year and an additional 8 percent next year.
The report warns that commodity prices could fall even further if global economic weakness persists or trade tensions intensify. A surge in OPEC+ output could deepen the oil glut, while rapid electric-vehicle adoption may accelerate the structural decline in oil demand. On the other hand, geopolitical conflicts or new sanctions could tighten supply and push prices higher. Extreme weather events linked to La Niña, as well as the rising energy demands of artificial intelligence data centers, could also influence future energy and metals markets.
Ayhan Kose, the World Bank’s Deputy Chief Economist and Director of the Prospects Group, described the current situation as an opportunity for reform. “Lower oil prices provide a timely opportunity for developing economies to advance fiscal reforms that promote growth and job creation,” he said. “Phasing out costly fuel subsidies can free up resources for infrastructure and human capital—areas that create jobs and strengthen long-term productivity.”
A special section of the report reviews the history of international commodity agreements, concluding that while some past measures—such as production quotas and trade restrictions—provided short-term stability, few delivered lasting results. The World Bank advises countries to invest in innovation, improve data transparency, and promote market-based pricing mechanisms to build resilience against future commodity shocks.