The temporary shutdown of Novorossiysk and a nearby Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal had affected roughly 2% of global oil supply, prompting gains of more than 2% for both benchmarks on Friday. The restart of operations on Sunday eased immediate supply concerns, but investors remain wary of further disruptions.
Ukraine’s military reported recent strikes on Russian oil infrastructure, including the Ryazan refinery and the Novokuibyshevsk facility in Samara. Analysts said the attacks have raised questions about the longer-term impact on Russian crude exports. “Investors are trying to gauge how Ukraine’s attacks will affect Russia’s crude exports in the long term,” said Toshitaka Tazawa, a strategist at Fujitomi Securities.
The market is also closely watching the effect of Western sanctions. The U.S. plans to ban deals with major Russian oil firms, including Lukoil and Rosneft, from November 21, while lawmakers consider additional penalties on countries trading with Moscow. Recent comments by U.S. President Donald Trump suggested Iran could be added to the sanctions list.
OPEC+ has maintained a steady production increase of 137,000 barrels per day for December and agreed to a pause on additional hikes in early 2026. Despite the organization’s measured approach, analysts warn of potential supply risks, including attacks on Russian facilities and geopolitical tensions in the Gulf of Oman, where Iran recently seized a tanker.
Market positioning data shows speculators increased net long positions in Brent crude, driven largely by short-covering amid ongoing uncertainty. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo noted that oil-on-water levels remain high but on-land inventories have yet to rise, suggesting support for prices. “While we expect prices to dip to the lower part of the trading range over the coming months, we hold a more constructive outlook for the second half of 2026,” he said.
With global oil markets facing both surplus projections and geopolitical risks, analysts expect continued volatility, as traders balance supply stability against persistent uncertainty in key producing regions.