Nigeria’s energy sector is poised for a major transformation following the announcement of a planned expansion of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery from its current 650,000 barrels per day (bpd) capacity to 1.4 million bpd by 2028. The development—positioned to reshape regional supply chains and elevate Africa’s role in global energy markets—has drawn widespread attention from industry analysts and policymakers.
The expanded facility is set to become the world’s largest single-train refinery, surpassing India’s 1.24 million bpd Jamnagar complex. Alongside this, the Dangote Group has unveiled an ambitious enlargement of its fertiliser operations, with production expected to grow from 3 million to 9 million metric tonnes per year. These twin projects signal an aggressive push to accelerate Nigeria’s industrial capabilities and deepen its presence in global commodities markets.
To execute the refinery upgrade, Dangote Group has secured a contract with Engineers India Limited, while its fertiliser expansion is being driven through a partnership with German technology provider thyssenkrupp Uhde, which will supply advanced granulation systems for four new urea lines.
For decades, Nigeria’s reliance on imported fuels has strained foreign exchange reserves and exposed the economy to price volatility. The ongoing ramp-up of the Dangote Refinery has already helped cut import volumes, and the planned capacity boost is expected to position Nigeria as a net exporter of refined products. Analysts say such an outcome could save the country billions of dollars annually, ease pressure on the naira, and strengthen the balance of payments.
By processing crude domestically into gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, LPG and petrochemicals, the refinery will retain value that previously left the country through crude exports. The anticipated scale of operations is expected to lift GDP contributions, increase tax revenues, and stimulate growth in petrochemicals, logistics, maritime services and manufacturing.
The fertiliser expansion is projected to catalyse gains across agriculture and agribusiness, reinforcing supply chains and reducing reliance on imported agricultural inputs. Industries dependent on polymers, plastics and industrial chemicals are also expected to benefit from more reliable and cost-effective feedstock supplies.
The combined industrial buildout is forecast to generate thousands of jobs across engineering, operations, maintenance, supply chain management and support services. Partnerships with global engineering firms are expected to foster technology transfer and strengthen local technical capacity.
Regionally, the expanded refinery could serve as a stabilising force for West and Central Africa, where many countries depend heavily on imported fuel. With surplus capacity, Nigeria could emerge as the continent’s leading supplier of refined products, enhancing energy security and reducing exposure to global supply shocks.
Globally, the timing of the expansion coincides with tightening refining capacity due to closures in Europe and North America and slower investment in new plants. The addition of a large-scale West African refining hub will diversify global supply, reduce reliance on existing centres in Asia and the Middle East, and moderate product premiums in markets across the Atlantic Basin.
To operate at full capacity, however, Nigeria will need to significantly increase crude oil output. This places new pressure on the upstream segment, which must tackle theft, vandalism and underinvestment to meet future supply requirements.
Industry observers view the refinery expansion as more than an engineering milestone. It represents a major shift in Nigeria’s economic direction and a reconfiguration of the global refining landscape. With 1.4 million bpd of capacity, the Dangote complex is positioned to anchor Nigeria’s industrialisation drive, reinforce regional energy security and influence global supply patterns—ushering in a new era of African participation in global energy markets.