Nigeria’s downstream petroleum market saw mixed signals in November 2025, as domestic petrol production from the Dangote refinery fell short of expectations even while overall fuel supply into the country rose sharply, according to the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA).
In its November 2025 State of the Midstream and Downstream Fact Sheet, the regulator disclosed that Dangote refinery’s actual domestic petrol output averaged 23.52 million litres per day, well below its projected 35 million litres per day. The shortfall comes at a time when the refinery is widely viewed as a cornerstone of Nigeria’s drive to reduce fuel imports and stabilise local supply.
The report also revealed a decline in petrol consumption across the country. Average daily usage dropped to 52.9 million litres in November, compared with 56.7 million litres recorded in October. Despite this moderation in demand, petrol supply increased significantly to about 71 million litres per day in November, up from 46 million litres per day in the preceding month.
NMDPRA attributed the surge in supply largely to imports. Of the total petrol supplied in November, 52.1 million litres per day came from imports, while local refineries contributed 19.5 million litres. The authority explained that the increase was driven by the need to rebuild national fuel stocks after supply levels in September and October fell below demand thresholds.
The regulator also pointed to preparations for heightened end-of-year consumption as a key factor, noting that the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited stepped in as the supplier of last resort. According to the report, NNPC imported petrol in November to shore up inventory and ensure availability during the festive period. In addition, 12 fuel vessels initially scheduled to discharge in October spilled over into November, further boosting supply volumes.
NMDPRA clarified that domestic supply figures were derived from a combination of discharged volumes and refinery truck-out data.
Beyond petrol, the report highlighted fuel consumption patterns across other products. In November, Nigerians consumed an average of 15.4 million litres of diesel per day, while aviation fuel usage stood at about 2.5 million litres daily.
The authority also provided updates on the state of Nigeria’s refineries. The Port Harcourt refinery, which has been shut down since May 24 for maintenance, continues to supply about 349,000 litres of diesel per day. NMDPRA explained that while no new production has occurred since the shutdown, evacuation of diesel produced prior to the closure has continued at that average rate. Meanwhile, both the Warri and Kaduna refineries remain shut down with no production activities reported.
On modular refining, the regulator said Waltersmith refinery’s second train, with a capacity of 5,000 barrels per stream day, is currently undergoing commissioning. The Waltersmith facility recorded an average capacity utilisation of 63.32 percent during the period, producing about 133,000 litres of diesel per day. Edo refinery performed more strongly, operating at an average capacity utilisation of 91.40 percent and producing roughly 60,000 litres of diesel daily.
Overall, the November data underscore Nigeria’s continued reliance on imports to stabilise petrol supply, even as local refining capacity expands. While consumption eased slightly, the gap between projected and actual output from major facilities such as the Dangote refinery highlights the challenges still facing the country’s transition toward self-sufficiency in refined petroleum products.