The latest “State of the Midstream and Downstream Fact Sheet,” published in October 2025, raises fresh questions about the government’s recent attempt to introduce a 15 per cent tariff on petrol and diesel imports. Critics of the now-suspended policy had pointed to the inability of domestic refineries to meet national demand, a concern that appears reinforced by the new data.
Although the tariff—initially justified as a measure to boost local refining capacity—was announced by President Bola Tinubu in October, the government stepped back from implementing it by mid-November, following widespread criticism from industry experts, civil society organisations, and consumer groups. Opponents argued that the policy would have driven up fuel prices and added further pressure to an already strained economy.
Before these developments, the federal government had projected that the Dangote Refinery would supply 25 million litres of petrol daily, rising to 35 million litres by last October. The refinery itself had maintained that it was capable of meeting Nigeria’s domestic fuel needs without the need for imports. However, the NMDPRA’s figures paint a more restrained picture of local production capacity.
Rising Consumption, Ongoing Imports
The report also shows that petrol consumption nationwide increased sharply. Average daily use climbed to 56.7 million litres in October 2025, up from 47.5 million litres a year earlier. To meet this demand, Nigeria imported 27.6 million litres of petrol per day over the period, while domestic refineries jointly delivered 17.08 million litres daily.
The regulator clarified that domestic supply data reflect discharge volumes, while import figures are based on depot receipts. It added that the most recent month’s figures remain subject to reconciliation.
Price differences across the country remain pronounced. Lagos recorded the lowest pump price at N883 per litre, while Sokoto posted the highest at N959 per litre. Other significant markets saw averages of N915 in Enugu, N907.5 in Calabar, and N945 in Kano.
Refinery Capacity and Operational Challenges
According to the NMDPRA, Nigeria’s refining system has an installed capacity of 1,125,000 barrels per day, though only 467,000 barrels per day were active between the first and third quarters of 2025. Utilisation was pegged at 61.58 per cent, constrained largely by technical issues and limited crude supply.
The list of active refineries includes Dangote, Aradel (11,000 bpd), Edo (1,000 bpd), and Walthersmith (5,000 bpd). In contrast, none of the country’s state-owned refineries—Port Harcourt, Kaduna, or Warri—were operational during the review period, despite their combined installed capacity of 445,000 barrels per day.
The report notes that the Port Harcourt refinery resumed operations briefly on 26 November 2024 but was shut down again on 24 May 2025 for maintenance and assessment. Warri restarted on 28 December 2024 only to shut down a month later due to safety concerns. The Kaduna refinery remains under rehabilitation.
Together, the findings underscore the continued fragility of Nigeria’s refining sector at a time when fuel consumption continues to rise, highlighting the country’s ongoing dependence on imports despite major investments in domestic refining capacity.