Nigeria’s capital market is closing 2025 on an emphatic note, with valuation levels approaching a historic milestone and renewed confidence gradually returning to the investment landscape. After navigating a year marked by macroeconomic adjustments, foreign exchange pressures and global uncertainty, the market has emerged more resilient, deeper and increasingly relevant to both domestic and offshore investors.
Total market capitalisation stood at about N149.88 trillion as of December 24, spanning equities, bonds and Exchange Traded Products (ETPs). The performance places the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) on the brink of crossing the N150 trillion mark for the first time, underscoring the impact of reforms, improved corporate activity and broader participation across investor classes.
Against this backdrop, the Chairman of NGX Group Plc, Dr. Umaru Kwairanga, has articulated a forward-looking agenda for 2026, anchored on competitiveness, liquidity expansion and stronger alignment with global market standards. In his review titled “2025 Capital Market Review and a Forward-Looking Agenda for 2026,” Kwairanga outlined the strategic priorities expected to shape market outcomes in the year ahead.
A Market That Defied Headwinds
Despite persistent FX uncertainty and tight financial conditions, the equities segment delivered a standout performance in 2025. Equities accounted for roughly N98.89 trillion, representing about 65.31% of total market capitalisation, buoyed by strong earnings, resilient banking and telecoms stocks, and renewed interest in fundamentally sound companies.
The NGX All-Share Index (ASI) climbed by about 49.17%, closing at 153,539.8 points by December 24, placing the exchange among Africa’s top-performing bourses for the year. Trading activity also surged, with turnover more than doubling year-on-year, driven largely by domestic investors seeking yield and capital appreciation.
Beyond equities, the bond market contributed approximately N51.55 trillion, while ETPs—though still relatively small—added about N43.20 billion, highlighting gradual diversification within the market.
Domestic Strength, Cautious Foreign Return
Market activity in 2025 was dominated by domestic investors, who accounted for an estimated 79–80% of transaction value. Foreign participation, while improving year-on-year, remained around 20–21%, constrained by FX volatility and lingering policy uncertainties, particularly around capital repatriation and taxation.
Kwairanga acknowledged the gradual recovery in foreign portfolio inflows, noting that several months recorded double-digit growth. However, he stressed that sustaining and scaling offshore interest will depend on clearer, more predictable policies and a stable macroeconomic environment.
What Drove the 2025 Upswing
According to the NGX Chairman, several factors combined to produce the market’s strong showing:
- Reforms aimed at FX transparency and unification
- Robust corporate actions and recapitalisation efforts, especially in the banking sector
- Increased retail and institutional participation, supported by digital trading channels
- Improved governance standards and solid sectoral performance
- Attractive dividend payouts that reinforced investor confidence
The primary market also gained momentum, with new listings and equity issuances pushing total capital raised to an estimated N6.34 trillion, significantly boosted by bank recapitalisation programmes.
Sustaining Momentum into 2026
Looking ahead, Kwairanga warned that maintaining the gains of 2025 will require discipline and coordination across the market ecosystem. He emphasised long-term investing, policy harmonisation, transparent governance and technology-led access as essential building blocks for sustainable growth.
His 2026 agenda is structured around three interconnected stakeholder groups: investors and issuers, regulators and policymakers, and market operators.
For investors and issuers, the focus is on long-horizon, diversified strategies that promote capital stability. Kwairanga highlighted the rising importance of technology in investor engagement and stressed that adherence to environmental, social and governance (ESG) standards has become central to attracting global capital.
For regulators and policymakers, including the SEC and CBN, he underscored the urgency of harmonising tax, FX and cross-border repatriation rules to reduce volatility and uncertainty. Clearer guidance on capital gains tax, settlement efficiency, disclosure standards and product innovation—such as derivatives and new exchange-traded products—will be critical to sustaining investor confidence.
For market operators, including NGX and intermediaries, the agenda centres on accelerated investment in infrastructure, technology platforms, cross-border connectivity and continuous investor education. Market integrity, transparency and strong enforcement mechanisms, he noted, remain fundamental to building long-term trust.
A Platform for Deeper Growth
Kwairanga believes the strong close to 2025 provides a solid foundation for even greater progress in 2026. With tighter policy alignment, upgraded infrastructure and sustained investor education, Nigeria’s capital market is well positioned to become deeper, more inclusive and globally competitive.
As the market edges closer to the N150 trillion threshold, the challenge now lies not just in growth, but in building a system resilient enough to sustain it—through cycles, reforms and rising global scrutiny.