Initial Shipments and Production Plans
The U.S. chipmaker plans to fulfill initial orders using existing stock, with shipments expected to total 5,000 to 10,000 chip modules, equivalent to approximately 40,000 to 80,000 H200 chips. Nvidia has also indicated that new production capacity for the H200 will be made available, with orders for this additional capacity opening in the second quarter of 2026, sources said.
Despite these plans, significant uncertainty remains. Beijing has yet to approve any H200 purchases, and the timeline for deliveries could change depending on government decisions.
"The whole plan is contingent on government approval," one source said. "Nothing is certain until we get the official go-ahead."
A Major Policy Shift
The potential shipments reflect a major change in U.S. policy. The Biden administration had banned advanced AI chip exports to China over national security concerns. However, the Trump administration recently authorized the sales, subject to a 25% licensing fee, and launched an inter-agency review of license applications for H200 exports.
In a statement to Reuters, Nvidia said, "We continuously manage our supply chain. Licensed sales of the H200 to authorized customers in China will have no impact on our ability to supply customers in the United States."
China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has not yet commented on the planned shipments.
Implications for China’s AI Industry
The H200 chip, part of Nvidia’s previous-generation Hopper line, remains widely used in AI applications despite being superseded by the newer Blackwell line. Supply of the H200 is limited, as Nvidia has focused production on Blackwell and its upcoming Rubin chips.
For Chinese technology firms such as Alibaba Group and ByteDance, access to H200 processors would provide performance roughly six times greater than the H20, a downgraded version Nvidia had previously designed for China.
At the same time, China is accelerating efforts to develop a domestic AI chip industry. Local firms have yet to match the performance of the H200, raising concerns that allowing imports could slow domestic progress. Reuters previously reported that Chinese officials considered measures to ensure imported H200 chips are paired with domestic chips, potentially maintaining incentives for local development.
Looking Ahead
While Nvidia is preparing to begin shipments, the final outcome depends heavily on Chinese government approval. Analysts suggest that if authorities grant permission, the deliveries could significantly boost AI capabilities for major Chinese tech companies, while also marking a notable example of U.S.-China technology policy shifts in advanced semiconductors.