Early indications from the one-month non-deliverable forward market suggest an opening range of 89.86–89.92 per dollar, after the currency weakened 0.4% on Tuesday to close at 89.87. During the previous session, the rupee briefly touched an all-time low of 89.9475 and edged beyond 90 in post-market trading on the interbank order-matching system.
Tuesday’s fall marked the fifth straight day of losses—despite consistent Reserve Bank of India intervention. Traders say the breach of 88.80, a level the RBI had vigorously defended for weeks, has removed a key psychological and technical support for the market. With that barrier gone, the currency now appears more exposed to longstanding pressures including subdued capital inflows, steady importer demand, and a recent rise in speculative positioning.
The deterioration in foreign investment is evident in India’s latest balance of payments figures for the September quarter, where net capital flows dropped sharply to $0.6 billion from $8 billion in the previous quarter.
Adding to the rupee’s challenges, global currency markets saw additional movement after a decline in the U.S. dollar index on Tuesday, which extended into Asian trade on expectations that Kevin Hassett may be named the next Federal Reserve Chair. President Donald Trump signaled the shortlisting process is down to a single candidate, later referring to Hassett as a “potential Fed chair.” Markets broadly view him as more dovish compared to the current Fed leadership.
Key market indicators offered a mixed picture: the one-month non-deliverable rupee forward traded around 90.08; the dollar index slipped to 99.22; Brent crude futures edged down 0.4% to $62.2 a barrel; and U.S. 10-year Treasury yields held near 4.08%.
Foreign portfolio activity also remained uneven: National Securities Depository Ltd. data showed overseas investors sold $94.3 million in Indian equities on Dec. 1, while purchasing $132.9 million in domestic bonds.
With sentiment still fragile and flows skewed, traders expect the rupee to remain under pressure—even as the softer dollar offers occasional breathing room.