Against the backdrop of shifting global energy dynamics and evolving domestic realities, investment firm Zedcrest Wealth has reiterated its confidence in select Nigerian energy stocks, maintaining a bullish stance on Seplat Energy Plc and Aradel Holdings. The reaffirmation comes as part of the firm’s 2026 financial year outlook report, aptly titled “Weak Global Pressures Meet Domestic Realities.”
Zedcrest retained its BUY rating on Seplat Energy Plc, assigning a target price of N8,049.46 per share. Based on Seplat’s current market price of N5,809.00, the valuation implies a potential upside of approximately 38.6%. The firm explained that the target price was derived from a combination of Net Asset Value (NAV) and Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation models, reflecting both asset strength and future cash generation potential.
In a similar move, the firm also maintained a BUY recommendation on Aradel Holdings, projecting a 17% upside to a target price of N798.35 per share. According to analysts, both investment calls are underpinned by improving macroeconomic indicators and strengthening fundamentals within Nigeria’s oil and gas sector.
Zedcrest’s outlook highlighted several supportive developments, including a reported 16-year low in crude oil theft, attributed to improved security across production corridors. The firm also pointed to Nigeria’s gradual crude oil output recovery, with production trending toward the government’s 2.5 million barrels per day target. In addition, strong sentiment around midstream infrastructure—particularly the Assa North–Ohaji South (ANOH) gas processing project—was cited as a key positive driver.
On the macroeconomic front, Zedcrest noted that first gas from the ANOH project is expected by Q4 2025, with full ramp-up anticipated in Q1 2026. Phase 1 of the project is designed to deliver 300 million standard cubic feet per day (mmscfd), with capacity expected to expand to 600 mmscfd in later phases. The project is jointly developed, with the Nigerian government holding a 57.5% stake, while Seplat is the second-largest stakeholder with 20% ownership.
Analysts believe the ANOH project will play a critical role in reshaping Nigeria’s domestic energy landscape by accelerating the transition from traditional fuels to compressed natural gas (CNG) and liquefied natural gas (LNG) for transportation, power generation, and industrial applications. This shift is expected to support energy security, reduce emissions, and stimulate industrial growth.
In the upstream segment, Zedcrest projects Nigeria’s crude oil production to rebound to 2.5 million barrels per day by the end of 2026, a production level last achieved in 2005. With its relatively stable balance sheet and expanding gas footprint, Seplat is seen as well-positioned to capitalise on both upstream recovery and midstream growth opportunities.
Recent financial results further reinforce this optimistic outlook. Seplat Energy Plc posted one of the strongest performances in its history, with revenue surging 213% year-on-year to N3.3 trillion in the first nine months of 2025—exceeding the company’s combined revenue from 2020 to 2024. Operating profit rose sharply to N1.09 trillion, compared with N411.3 billion in the prior period, reflecting improved scale and operational efficiency.
Despite elevated finance costs, the company recorded a pretax profit of N878.9 billion, more than double the N366.7 billion achieved a year earlier. On the balance sheet, retained earnings stood at N314 billion, while shareholders’ equity amounted to N2.6 trillion, representing a modest 4.6% decline. Total assets were reported at N9 trillion, slightly below the N9.8 trillion recorded in the previous year.
Overall, Zedcrest believes that a combination of improving security, production recovery, gas infrastructure development, and strong corporate performance places Seplat—and selected peers such as Aradel—in a favourable position heading into 2026, despite lingering global uncertainties.