Brent crude futures had risen about 0.7% to around $62.4 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was up roughly 0.6–0.7%, extending gains from the previous session. Both contracts are poised for a weekly increase after reversing earlier declines.
Geopolitical Tensions Fuel Supply Concerns
Renewed protests and unrest in Iran, one of OPEC’s key producers, have raised fears that output could be constrained if internal instability spreads. A nationwide internet blackout and demonstrations in major cities have underscored the scale of the turmoil, prompting traders to price in a possible disruption.
At the same time, Venezuelan oil exports remain shrouded in uncertainty. The U.S. government is negotiating with major energy firms and trading houses over how to handle millions of barrels currently stored in the country after sanctions and logistical challenges slowed shipments. President Donald Trump has publicly asserted that Washington will control Venezuela’s oil sales and revenue, framing it as a long‑term strategic effort.
Compounding this, a recent Reuters survey found OPEC output fell in December, driven by lower production in both Iran and Venezuela, potentially tightening supply margins further.
Broader Market Dynamics Still in Play
Beyond geopolitical headlines, markets remain cautious. Analysts note that while elevated risks support prices in the near term, global oversupply and weak demand growth could cap upside unless tensions escalate significantly. Supply from other regions and inventories that have risen through late 2025 continue to temper a sharper rally.
Investors will be watching developments in Iran, the outcome of U.S.–Venezuelan oil negotiations, and broader OPEC+ output trends for clues on where crude prices head next.