According to LSEG SmartEstimate, which aggregates forecasts from 31 analysts, Samsung’s operating profit for October through December is expected to reach 16.9 trillion won ($11.7 billion), more than double the 6.49 trillion won reported a year earlier. If confirmed, this would be the company’s highest quarterly profit since the third quarter of 2018, when it recorded 17.6 trillion won. Some analysts have even raised estimates to over 20 trillion won, citing stronger-than-expected prices for conventional memory chips. Samsung is scheduled to release its official revenue and profit guidance on Thursday.
Memory Market Surge Fuels Record Gains
Prices for DDR5 DRAM chips, widely used in servers, computers, and smartphones, jumped 314% in the fourth quarter compared with a year earlier, according to market researcher TrendForce. Conventional DRAM contract prices are expected to rise another 55% to 60% in the current quarter.
TrendForce analyst Avril Wu said Samsung is positioned to benefit more than peers from the price upcycle because a significant portion of its production capacity is concentrated in conventional DRAM. DDR5 DRAM, a faster and more efficient successor to earlier chips, is a critical component for AI model training, cloud computing, and high-performance applications.
Micron Technology, another major memory chip maker, recently forecasted second-quarter profit nearly double Wall Street estimates, with CEO Sanjay Mehrotra projecting tight memory markets through at least 2026.
AI Demand Boosts High-Bandwidth Memory
Samsung’s turnaround comes just over a year after CEO Jun Young-hyun apologized for disappointing results and lagging behind rival SK Hynix in supplying high-end chips to Nvidia, the leading AI processor maker.
Shares of Samsung surged 125% in 2025, marking their largest annual percentage gain in 26 years, before cooling slightly on Tuesday morning. CEO Jun highlighted strong customer demand for Samsung’s next-generation high-bandwidth memory (HBM4) chips, which are expected to power Nvidia’s upcoming Vera Rubin AI platform. “Samsung is back,” he said, quoting customer feedback, helping extend the company’s recent rally to record highs.
Analysts note that Samsung is gradually increasing its share in supplying chips to Nvidia, positioning itself against rivals like SK Hynix and Micron. The boom in chip prices is expected to more than offset slower performance in Samsung’s mobile division, pushing the company’s full-year operating profit to over 100 trillion won.
Balancing Booms and Risks
Despite record semiconductor profits, Samsung faces challenges from rising chip prices, which could dampen demand for PCs, smartphones, and AI data center hardware. Lee Min-hee, an analyst at BNK Investment & Securities, cautioned that the rapid price increases carry “risks of a demand slowdown,” especially as AI infrastructure relies heavily on debt financing.
Samsung co-CEO TM Roh, who oversees mobile, TV, and home appliance divisions, acknowledged the uneven impact across businesses. “As this situation is unprecedented, no company is immune to its impact,” he said, adding that Samsung is working to minimize the effect on its smartphone margins.
With memory shortages fueling record profits but creating ripple effects across other business units, Samsung’s fourth-quarter results will offer a key glimpse into how the global chip market is evolving under surging AI demand.