The South American nation holds the world’s largest estimated oil reserves, yet output has collapsed over the past two decades due to mismanagement, underinvestment, and the nationalization of foreign oil assets in the 2000s, which included ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips.
Any foreign companies considering a return would confront significant obstacles, including security risks, deteriorating infrastructure, unresolved legal disputes over U.S. operations, and ongoing political uncertainty. “American firms won’t return until they know for sure they will be paid and have at least a minimal level of security,” said Mark Christian, director of business development at CHRIS Well Consulting. He added that U.S. sanctions would also need to be lifted.
In addition, Venezuela would need to reform its oil laws to attract large-scale foreign investment. The country nationalized its oil industry in the 1970s and later forced foreign companies into state-controlled joint ventures in the 2000s. While some companies, such as Chevron, negotiated exits, others pursued arbitration over disputed assets.
Experts caution that even under a smooth political transition, a production rebound would take years. “If Trump and others can produce a peaceful transition with little resistance, then in five to seven years there could be a significant ramp-up as infrastructure is repaired and investments sorted out,” said Thomas O’Donnell, energy and geopolitical strategist. However, he noted the high potential for setbacks, including resistance from armed groups and guerrillas operating within the country.
Chevron is currently the only U.S. oil major operating in Venezuela, exporting roughly 150,000 barrels per day to the U.S. Gulf Coast. Other companies, including ConocoPhillips and Exxon, are closely monitoring the situation but remain cautious. Conoco, in particular, is owed over $10 billion from prior nationalizations, potentially motivating a return if conditions improve.
Historically, Venezuela produced as much as 3.5 million barrels per day in the 1970s—over 7% of global oil output—but production fell below 2 million bpd during the 2010s and averaged around 1.1 million bpd last year.
Meanwhile, OPEC and allied producers are expected to maintain current output levels during their upcoming meeting, despite concerns over a potential global supply glut. Experts say that any immediate changes in Venezuela’s situation are unlikely to significantly affect U.S. oil and gasoline prices, as much of the country’s current production is exported to Cuba and China.
“History shows that U.S. interventions in oil-rich countries rarely translate into domestic energy gains,” said Ed Hirs, an energy fellow at the University of Houston, citing Iraq and Libya as recent examples. For now, Chevron’s tankers remain among the few vessels moving Venezuelan crude, highlighting the slow pace of recovery.
Even with potential U.S. investment and political changes, Venezuela faces a long and uncertain road before regaining its former role as a major global oil supplier.