Global cocoa prices have slipped below the $4,000 per metric ton mark, deepening a selloff that has gathered pace since the start of the year and stoking fears of another sharp monthly downturn.
On 10 February 2026, cocoa traded around $3,780 per metric ton, pushing month-to-date losses beyond 10%. The latest decline follows January’s steep drop of more than 29%, raising concerns among market participants that the downward momentum could intensify further.
Supply Surge from West Africa
The renewed weakness is largely tied to improved growing conditions across major West African producers, where favourable weather has boosted crop development and increased bean arrivals at ports.
Mondelez International reported that the most recent cocoa pod count in West Africa stands 7% above the five-year average and is “materially higher” than last season’s output — a signal that supply pressures may persist in the months ahead.
Analysts say the supply outlook has shifted decisively into surplus territory for the 2025/2026 season. StoneX projects a global cocoa surplus of 287,000 metric tons in 2025/2026, followed by an additional surplus of 267,000 metric tons in 2026/2027.
Further underscoring the supply glut, the International Cocoa Organization reported on 23 January 2026 that global cocoa stocks climbed to 1.1 million metric tons, up 4.2% year-on-year.
Demand Weakness Adds to Pressure
Beyond swelling inventories, signs of softening demand are compounding bearish sentiment.
Barry Callebaut AG, the world’s largest bulk chocolate producer, posted a 22% decline in cocoa division sales volume for the quarter ended 30 November 2025. In its 28 January report, the company cited “negative market demand and a prioritization of volume towards higher-return segments within cocoa” as factors behind the drop.
Regional processing data reflects similar trends. In Europe, fourth-quarter cocoa grindings fell 8.3% year-on-year to 304,470 metric tons — the lowest Q4 level in 12 years. In Asia, grindings declined 4.8% to 197,022 metric tons, underscoring waning consumption in key markets.
Meanwhile, inventories monitored by ICE have climbed to a 3.25-month high of 1,812,564 bags, adding further downward pressure on prices.
A Market Repeating 2025’s Pattern?
The current slump echoes the dramatic correction seen in 2025, when cocoa futures plunged more than 44% — from above $10,950 to $6,065 per metric ton. The annual decline would have exceeded 50% if not for a late-year rebound in December, when prices recovered from $5,456.
According to Oran van Dort, commodity analyst at Rabobank, cocoa prices are likely to remain under pressure. He points to sustained favourable weather in West Africa, which could keep supply elevated and ensure a steady flow of beans to export terminals.
Key Levels to Watch
Year-to-date, cocoa prices have fallen by more than 37% on the global commodities market. Traders are closely monitoring a potential support zone near $3,200 per metric ton. A decisive break below this level could accelerate losses, while any recovery would need to clear resistance around $5,000 to signal a stronger rebound.
In Nigeria — the world’s fifth-largest cocoa producer — December exports reached 54,790 metric tons, up 17% year-on-year, highlighting the continued strength of supply flows even as prices slide.
With oversupply building and demand indicators softening, the cocoa market faces mounting headwinds that could prolong the current downturn in the months ahead.