Global oil markets are once again on edge as geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran intensify, pushing crude prices to their highest levels in nearly two years and raising fresh concerns about supply disruptions.
Brent crude climbed sharply above $126 per barrel, marking an 8.28% increase and its highest level since June 2022. At the same time, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose by 3.37% to $110.48 per barrel, reflecting heightened uncertainty among traders reacting to developments in the Middle East.
The latest rally follows reports that U.S. President Donald Trump is preparing to receive a high-level military briefing from CENTCOM Commander Adm. Brad Cooper. According to sources cited in an Axios report, the meeting could signal a possible resumption of military action against Iran, as negotiations between both countries remain stalled despite an ongoing ceasefire.
Rising Tensions Despite Ceasefire
Although hostilities had been temporarily paused under an extended ceasefire agreement, diplomatic efforts appear to have lost momentum. The planned military briefing is widely interpreted as an indication that Washington may be considering renewed strikes to pressure Tehran into meeting key U.S. demands.
Adding to market anxiety is the continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply passes. President Trump has stated that the blockade will remain in place until Iran abandons its nuclear ambitions, describing the measure as even more effective than direct military strikes.
Iran, on its part, is reportedly pushing for the blockade to be lifted, signalling a willingness to negotiate, though no concrete breakthrough has been achieved.
Volatility Becomes the New Normal
Oil prices have swung dramatically in recent weeks, mirroring the ebb and flow of geopolitical developments. The conflict, which escalated on February 28 following a joint U.S.-Israel strike, has kept markets highly sensitive to any signals from Washington or Tehran.
Prices surged by more than 5% on April 2 after indications that the U.S. would extend its military campaign. A brief dip followed on April 8 when both sides agreed to a two-week ceasefire, offering temporary relief. However, that calm proved short-lived, as prices rebounded by over 7% on April 13 after the announcement of a naval blockade targeting vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.
Nigeria Feels the Impact
The ripple effects of rising oil prices are being felt far beyond the Middle East, with Nigeria experiencing significant economic pressure. Since the crisis began, petrol prices have surged by over 50%, climbing from ₦799 per litre to around ₦1,200 at depots and ₦1,153 along coastal regions.
This sharp increase in fuel costs has triggered broader inflation, particularly in food prices. Transportation and logistics expenses have risen steeply, pushing up the cost of essential goods across major markets.
In Lagos, for instance, the price of a medium bag of pepper jumped from ₦32,000 in February to ₦80,000 in March, while a large bag rose from ₦58,000 to ₦140,000. Tomatoes also recorded notable increases, with large baskets moving from ₦40,000 to ₦60,000 and smaller varieties climbing significantly as well.
A Fragile Outlook
The latest spike in oil prices underscores how deeply interconnected global markets remain with geopolitical events. As tensions between the U.S. and Iran continue to evolve, the risk of prolonged supply disruptions looms large—posing challenges not only for energy markets but also for economies like Nigeria that are highly sensitive to fuel price fluctuations.
With uncertainty still dominating the outlook, both investors and policymakers are bracing for continued volatility in the weeks ahead.