Speaking on Monday at the UBS Wealth Conference in Singapore, the former Goldman Sachs commodities chief and current chief strategy officer of energy pathways at Carlyle Group and co-chairman of Abaxx Technologies said headline inventory figures are masking a deeper structural shortage.
“Headline global inventory figures can be misleading as much of the oil stored worldwide cannot be used immediately,” he said, explaining that a significant portion of global crude reserves is effectively locked in place to maintain the safe functioning of pipelines and storage systems. That leaves only a fraction of reported stocks available to meet market demand.
Currie warned that Asia is already operating near what he called “minimum operating levels,” where inventories become too low to comfortably support consumption and logistics flows.
“Asia is already close to these so-called ‘minimum operating levels,’” he said.
Rising strain spreads across regions
The warning comes as global oil markets remain under pressure following disruptions tied to the conflict involving Iran, which has severely affected shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz and curtailed key Middle Eastern exports.
According to Currie, the strain is now shifting across regions in stages rather than hitting all at once.
“I would say, Asia, you’re there. Europe, give it about another month, and look for July being a problem in the U.S.,” he said.
He added that Europe’s current comfort level, partly supported by increased inflows of U.S. crude and product exports, may be temporary.
“All of the inventories that are drawing out of the United States out of the U.S. SPR [Strategic Petroleum Reserve] are being exported into Europe, so the Europeans think they have no problem because they’re getting all of this oil being imported from the United States, but that can’t continue on.”
Fuel market distortions deepen
Beyond crude supply concerns, Currie pointed to unusual pricing dynamics in refined products as evidence of stress in the system.
“We’ve seen explosive prices on products. Jet fuel has come down, but diesel has now gone up above jet fuel. So, the problem here in Singapore continues. It just moved from jet to diesel,” he said.
That shift, he suggested, reflects tightening diesel availability, which is critical for freight, industry, and agriculture, and often serves as a more sensitive indicator of supply stress than crude prices alone.
Structural shortage, not policy fixes
Currie dismissed demand-side policy responses such as fuel tax relief measures as insufficient to resolve what he described as a physical shortage problem.
“That doesn’t solve any of the problems. The only way you solve this problem is to increase the availability of molecules,” he said, emphasizing that only increased physical supply of oil can restore balance.
While releases from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve have provided temporary cushioning, he argued that pricing signals continue to reflect underlying scarcity.
He also pointed to geopolitical dynamics, suggesting that tightening inventories may be strengthening Iran’s negotiating position as talks over reopening the Strait of Hormuz remain unresolved.
Global warning signals intensify
His comments align with broader concerns from international energy observers. The head of the Fatih Birol recently warned that markets could enter a “red zone” during peak summer demand if supply conditions do not improve.
“We may be entering the red zone in July or August if we don’t see that there are some improvements in the situation,” Birol cautioned.
Meanwhile, global attention is increasingly focused on whether disruptions in the Middle East will persist long enough to trigger sustained shortages across major consuming regions, including Asia, Europe, and the United States.
For Currie, the central risk is not just price volatility, but the erosion of usable global inventories to the point where normal market functioning becomes strained.
“The minute you think you won, that’s exactly when you know you probably lost,” he said, warning that current conditions have strengthened the strategic leverage of key producers amid already thinning global stockpiles.