The President of Dangote Group, Alhaji Aliko Dangote, has revealed that the company turned down repeated requests from the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited to increase its current 7.25 per cent equity holding in the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, insisting instead on a broader ownership structure that will eventually include the public.
Dangote made the disclosure during an interview with Nicolai Tangen, Chief Executive Officer of the Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund, an interaction that was monitored on Wednesday.
The remarks come amid new data suggesting a dramatic shift in Nigeria’s fuel supply dynamics, with the $20bn Lekki-based refinery significantly expanding domestic output while imports continue to decline.
Refinery Output Surges as Imports Drop Sharply
Findings by BrandIconImage show that petrol supplied by the refinery rose to 3.18 billion litres in the first quarter of 2026 alone. Over the same period, imported petrol fell to 965.52 million litres, underscoring the refinery’s growing dominance in the domestic market.
The data also placed the average ex-depot petrol price from January to March 2026 at about ₦1,000 per litre. On that basis, analysts estimate that the refinery delivered more than ₦3.2tn worth of petrol into the Nigerian market during the period under review.
At the same time, geopolitical tensions—particularly the United States–Iran conflict—have disrupted global energy flows, indirectly boosting earnings for the refinery as it expanded exports of refined petroleum products.
“We Are the Ones That Said No” — Dangote on NNPC Stake Expansion
Explaining why further equity acquisition by the national oil company was rejected, Dangote linked the decision to a broader strategy of public participation and future listing.
According to him, the plan is to ensure wider Nigerian ownership rather than deeper institutional concentration.
He said:
“Actually, if there are civil wars, which is not in the offing at all.
“The other biggest risk is government inconsistencies in policies, and we are addressing that one because if you look at our refinery, the national oil company already owns 7.25 per cent, and they are trying to buy more. We are the ones that said no; we want to now spread it and have everybody be part of it.”
Dangote also reiterated that the refinery is preparing for a public offering that will allow Nigerians to acquire shares.
From 20% to 7.25%: Controversy Over NNPC’s Stake History
The equity structure of the refinery has remained a subject of public debate since Dangote disclosed in 2024 that the national oil company’s stake was lower than widely assumed.
He stated at the time:
“The agreement was actually 20 per cent, which we had with NNPC, and they did not pay the balance of the money up until last year; then we gave them another extension up until June (2024), and they said that they would remain where they had already paid, which is 7.2 per cent. So NNPC owns only 7.2 per cent, not 20 per cent.”
The clarification surprised many observers who had long believed the national oil company retained a fifth of the refinery.
Dollar Dividends and Export-Driven Earnings Model
Looking ahead, Dangote said future investors in the group’s businesses—including cement, petrochemicals, fertiliser, and refining—should expect dividend payments in foreign currency.
“What we are announcing is that when you invest in any of our businesses going forward, in cement or in the refinery, in petrochemicals, in fertiliser, we guarantee to pay you a dividend in dollars because we are very well into exports. 80 per cent of our revenue will be in dollars,” he said.
The billionaire also noted that the refinery’s revenue structure is increasingly export-weighted, strengthening its ability to hedge against naira volatility.
Financing the Refinery: Banks, Currency Pressure, and Global Partners
Dangote explained that while the initial plan was to rely heavily on internally generated funds, currency devaluation forced the group to seek external financing.
He said support came from multiple institutions, including African and global lenders.
“from our internally generated funds”, but because of naira devaluation, the group “had to rely on Afreximbank, Africa Finance Corporation, Zenith Bank, Access Bank, UBA and a couple of the local banks, but of course we also have a very good relationship with the Standard Bank of South Africa and, at the beginning, Standard Chartered Bank of the UK”.
He added that the outcome of the project exceeded expectations once operations commenced.
“turned out to be much more than our own expectations”.
Personal Sacrifices: Selling Homes Abroad to Focus on Nigeria
Dangote also spoke about his personal decision to relocate fully to Nigeria, revealing that he sold his properties overseas to focus on building the refinery and related ventures.
“When I decided to go into the industry, you know what I did? I sold all my properties in the US. I had two houses in the US, big mansions, and I had a house in the UK. I wanted to really sit in Nigeria and concentrate.
“You know, sometimes when you own a holiday home anywhere, you have to create that time to go and use that property. So, now my life is very simple. Wherever I go, I use hotels; I pay. When I leave, nobody will call me and say I have a burst pipe or something is wrong. So I’m committed to what I do, and I just don’t do things; I always create a vision.
“It’s just like now; we created a vision for 2030. So, I know I have a target to meet. I just don’t do business. All my businesses are targeted,” he said.
Business Philosophy: “Backward Integration” and Long-Term Planning
Explaining his investment strategy, Dangote said his decisions are guided by identifying essential goods that Nigeria imports but can produce locally.
“I first of all look at what we need as a people? What is it that we are supposed to be producing, and we’re importing? So we do what you call ‘backward integration’. We produce what the people need, and we are now producing things that when you wake up as a human being every morning, you must use part of what we produce,” he said.
NNPC’s Response to Reduced Stake
Providing context for the reduction in the national oil company’s equity position, former NNPC spokesman Olufemi Soneye said the decision was driven by a shift in investment priorities toward compressed natural gas infrastructure.
The development highlights ongoing strategic adjustments within Nigeria’s downstream energy sector as both public and private players reposition for evolving market conditions.
Domestic Refineries Take Control, Imports Collapse Sharply
A major structural shift is unfolding in Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector, with new regulatory data showing that domestic refineries now dominate petrol supply while imports have fallen to their lowest levels in years—though overall availability has not fully improved year-on-year.
Fresh figures from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), analysed from official downstream fact sheets, show that total Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) supply stood at 4.14 billion litres in the first quarter of 2026. Local refineries supplied 3.18 billion litres, representing 76.7 per cent of total supply, while imports contributed 965.52 million litres, or 23.3 per cent.
Although the NMDPRA documents did not directly name Dangote Refinery in the Q1 2026 breakdown, industry records confirm that it is the only refinery in Nigeria currently producing PMS at commercial scale. The agency’s fact sheet also separately listed Dangote among active refineries and tracked its petrol output performance.
Domestic Output Surges, Imports Halved in Structural Market Shift
The latest data underscores a sharp reversal in Nigeria’s fuel sourcing pattern compared to the previous year.
Local refinery supply jumped from 1.99 billion litres in Q1 2025 to 3.18 billion litres in Q1 2026, a 59.2 per cent increase.
In contrast, petrol imports collapsed from 2.43 billion litres in Q1 2025 to 965.52 million litres in Q1 2026, representing a 60.2 per cent decline.
Despite the surge in local refining, total supply still fell by 6.2 per cent year-on-year, dropping from 4.42 billion litres in Q1 2025 to 4.14 billion litres in Q1 2026.
For accurate year-on-year comparison, BrandIconImage converted 2025 NMDPRA data—which was reported in daily averages—into monthly volumes by multiplying daily million-litre figures by the number of days in each month and then by one million. This was necessary because the 2026 data was provided in absolute monthly litres.
January 2026: Strong Start Driven by Local Refineries
In January 2026, local refinery supply reached 1.24 billion litres, imports stood at 698.19 million litres, and total supply was 1.94 billion litres.
This translated into daily averages of 40.07 million litres from local refineries, 22.52 million litres from imports, and 62.59 million litres total supply.
Compared with January 2025, local refinery output rose sharply by 109.8 per cent from 19.1 million litres per day. Imports declined by 8.8 per cent from 24.7 million litres per day. Total supply also increased by 43.2 per cent from 43.7 million litres per day.
February 2026: Sharp Contraction in Supply and Imports
February recorded the weakest performance in the quarter.
Local refinery supply fell to 824.45 million litres, while imports collapsed to just 85.10 million litres. Total supply dropped to 909.55 million litres.
On a daily basis, this translated to 29.44 million litres from local refineries, 3.04 million litres from imports, and 32.48 million litres total supply.
Compared to February 2025, local refinery supply was still 18.7 per cent higher than the 24.8 million litres per day recorded the previous year. However, imports crashed by 88.9 per cent from 27.5 million litres per day. Total supply fell sharply by 37.9 per cent from 52.3 million litres per day.
March 2026: Partial Recovery in Output and Imports
Supply improved in March 2026 as local refineries produced 1.11 billion litres, imports rose to 182.24 million litres, and total supply reached 1.29 billion litres.
Daily averages stood at 35.87 million litres from local refineries, 5.88 million litres from imports, and 41.75 million litres total supply.
Year-on-year comparison showed that local refinery output increased by 56.6 per cent from 22.9 million litres per day in March 2025. Imports, however, fell sharply by 79.5 per cent from 28.7 million litres per day. Total supply declined by 19.1 per cent from 51.6 million litres per day.
Month-on-Month Volatility Highlights Uneven Supply Pattern
Across Q1 2026, supply patterns showed significant fluctuations.
Total petrol supply fell by 53.1 per cent from 1.94 billion litres in January to 909.55 million litres in February, before rising by 42.3 per cent to 1.29 billion litres in March.
Local refinery supply also declined by 33.6 per cent between January and February before rising by 34.9 per cent in March.
Imports were highly unstable—falling by 87.8 per cent in February and then surging by 114.2 per cent in March.
The NMDPRA’s April 2026 FAAC report confirmed that PMS supply rose from 909.55 million litres in February to 1.29 billion litres in March, a 42.29 per cent increase.
It also showed that PMS distribution through truck-out dropped from 1.59 billion litres in February to 1.47 billion litres in March.
Imports Fall, Local Refining Now Dominates—but Total Supply Still Lower
The figures indicate that Nigeria is rapidly reducing dependence on imported petrol, with domestic refineries now supplying the majority of national demand.
However, despite stronger local output, total supply in Q1 2026 remains lower than Q1 2025, suggesting that higher domestic production has not fully translated into increased overall availability.
BrandIconImage earlier reported that Nigerians consumed about 4.93 billion litres of PMS in Q1 2026, a 7.4 per cent increase from 4.59 billion litres in Q1 2025.
The report also noted that Dangote Petroleum Refinery exported about 434 million litres of petrol in March 2026, reflecting growing international sales alongside domestic supply.
“We Have More Than Half a Billion Litres in Storage”
Dangote, speaking earlier, insisted the refinery has more than enough capacity to meet domestic demand.
“Right now, we have more than half a billion litres in storage. The refinery is producing enough refined products, gasoline, diesel, and kerosene to meet all of Nigeria’s needs,” he said.
He also stated that production capacity has exceeded expectations.
“The refinery has been tested. We have now processed even crude at 661,000 barrels a day. So we have demonstrated that capability.”
On investor confidence, he added: “A lot of financial institutions are saying that, ‘Yes, if it is you doing this project, we are there to back you… you have the capacity, you have the knowledge, and you have the experience.’”
Expert Cautions Against Claims of Zero Imports
Energy economist Professor Wumi Iledare warned against assumptions that Nigeria has fully stopped importing petrol.
“Recent claims that petrol importation into Nigeria has ended because Dangote Refinery now meets domestic demand reflect understandable optimism, but they overstate economic reality,” he said.
He further explained: “Dangote Refinery has significantly improved domestic supply conditions and reduced Nigeria’s marginal reliance on imported petrol. However, neither Dangote refinery nor petroleum marketers determines national supply outcomes.”
Industry View: Domestic Refining as a Turning Point
Petroleumprice.ng CEO, Jeremiah Olatide, described the expansion of local refining capacity as a major milestone in Nigeria’s downstream transformation.
He said the development reflects long-awaited progress in reducing dependence on imported petroleum products, even though market stability is still evolving.
“661,000 Barrels Per Day and Expanding Capacity”
Dangote also disclosed that his refinery is currently operating at 661,000 barrels per day, exceeding its 650,000 bpd nameplate capacity.
He said expansion plans could significantly increase output.
“In the next 30 months, we will be at 1.4 million barrels per day, which is huge,” he said.
He also highlighted global market dynamics affecting his operations.
“The effect of the war on our businesses is more beneficial than a downside… fertiliser is in very high demand. In February… urea was about $400 a tonne. Today we are selling a tonne at $850.”
He added that polypropylene prices surged from $900 to about $3,000, warning that many Nigerian plastics manufacturers would have struggled without local supply.
“Our aviation fuel is oversold till the middle of July, and we’re producing 20 million litres of jet fuel a day,” he said.
Crude Supply Sources and Expansion Plans
Dangote explained that crude feedstock comes from multiple sources.
“We source about 56 per cent from Nigeria and some from Angola. We buy quite a bit from Angola, we buy from Libya, and we buy from the US,” he said.
“At one point, we were doing about seven to eight cargoes of WTI from the US. But we’re getting more of Nigeria’s crude now. We have to now buy 21 cargoes every month.”
He added: “In the next 30 months, we will be at 1.4 million barrels per day, which is huge.”
“Mafia” Accusation and Industry Pushback
Dangote also alleged resistance from entrenched interests in the fuel import value chain.
“The Mafia are the people who are actually benefiting because Nigeria was giving out almost $10bn every year as a subsidy,” he said.
He described groups benefiting from shipping, trading, and subsidy allocations as resisting reform because of lost revenues.
Long-Term Ambition: $100bn Revenue Target
He also revealed plans to raise new investment and scale operations significantly.
“We are coming up with selling part of the business, getting more investors into the business, and also making sure that we continue to grow the business,” he said.
He added: “So, we’ll be able to actually fund this $45bn, which will eventually take us to $100bn of revenue… our target is to get to $100bn by 2030… with a market valuation of maybe more than $250bn.”
He projected EBITDA growth from $3bn to over $30bn by 2030.
Outlook: A Transition Still in Progress
Nigeria’s downstream sector is clearly shifting toward domestic refining dominance, with imports now significantly reduced.
However, the data shows a market still in transition—where increased local production has not yet fully stabilised total supply levels or eliminated volatility across months.
The structure has changed; the balance has shifted—but the system is still adjusting.