The aviation sector has adopted a notably confident tone even as jet fuel prices surge to nearly double their pre-conflict levels following the escalation of hostilities involving Iran and the United States. Industry leaders insist that supply chains remain functional for now, although analysts and traders continue to warn of mounting risks if the situation persists.
The Strait of Hormuz, a critical global shipping route through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply passes, remains heavily disrupted due to military tensions and blockades. The Gulf region accounts for approximately a quarter of Europe’s jet fuel supply, making the crisis particularly sensitive for airlines already navigating high operating costs and peak summer demand.
Despite the uncertainty, major European travel companies are publicly downplaying fears of immediate shortages, a move analysts believe is partly aimed at preventing panic bookings cancellations during the industry’s most profitable season.
“There are always people who want to take a stand — we’re running out of fuel. There’s absolutely no indication of that,” said Sebastian Ebel, CEO of Europe’s largest tour operator, TUI, while speaking after the company’s quarterly earnings presentation.
“We think the discussion on fuel is a little bit artificial as we do see no shortages for the next weeks, and I would also see no impact in the summer at all, except prices,” he added.
Still, behind the optimistic messaging, signs of strain are emerging across parts of Europe’s aviation fuel network. Data from LSEG Workspace shows jet fuel inventories in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) refining and storage hub are hovering near historic lows, raising concerns about how long current reserves can sustain operations if disruptions continue.
The International Energy Agency also warned this week that global oil production may fail to meet demand this year as instability in the Middle East affects output and shipping flows.
Airlines have responded by scrambling to diversify fuel sources. Industry analysts say carriers are increasingly purchasing jet fuel from suppliers in the United States and Nigeria, even at sharply higher prices, to keep operations stable.
Lufthansa CEO Carsten Spohr acknowledged that the company’s fuel outlook remains secure only in the short term.
“Supplies and deliveries will be sufficient through mid-July. After that, visibility decreases somewhat,” Spohr said.
According to him, around 25 percent of Lufthansa Group’s regular jet fuel supply usually comes from the Gulf region. He revealed that half of that volume has already been replaced through alternative sourcing arrangements, while the remaining supply is currently being drawn from reserve stockpiles.
Low-cost carriers are also attempting to project confidence despite the soaring costs. Wizz Air CEO Jozsef Varadi said suppliers are still finding ways to keep the market supplied because of the massive jump in fuel prices.
“I don’t think we’re going to be running out,” Varadi said, noting that jet fuel prices have climbed to about $1,400 per metric ton — nearly twice pre-war levels.
“That creates a lot of room to get creative,” he added.
Airport operators across Europe have also increased stockpiling efforts to cushion against disruptions. Aviation fuel technology firm i6 Group reported that jet fuel reserves at European airports rose by more than 60 percent in April as operators rushed to build emergency buffers.
The increased storage helped calm concerns after several Italian airports earlier flagged temporary supply issues linked to delayed deliveries.
“In the short term, we’re certainly not seeing any impact in supply,” said Gary McLean, Managing Director of Dublin Airport.
“We’re not hearing of any kind of concern on that for summer,” he added.
Industry experts, however, believe much of the reassuring language is strategically aimed at protecting consumer confidence during the crucial holiday season.
“Summer is the key earnings season for airlines and of course they want to reassure customers that it is safe to book,” independent aviation analyst John Strickland explained.
European officials are also maintaining a cautious but optimistic outlook. EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen said there is currently no immediate threat to fuel security across the bloc, though he warned the longer-term picture remains uncertain.
“We don’t expect a very serious security of supply issue on a very short term,” Jorgensen told reporters.
“But we cannot exclude that there will be security of supply issues on a longer term. This all depends, of course, on the situation in the Middle East.”
While airlines continue to insist that flights and summer travel schedules remain intact, the rapidly evolving geopolitical crisis and rising fuel costs are likely to keep pressure on ticket prices and airline profitability in the months ahead.