According to aviation analytics firm Cirium, around 13,000 flights have been cut globally this month alone, removing nearly two million seats from planned services. The reductions represent roughly 1% of all scheduled flights worldwide, but they are already reshaping travel plans across key routes and hubs.
Among the most affected airports are Munich and Istanbul, both of which have seen a noticeable drop in scheduled departures as carriers adjust capacity in response to higher fuel costs and uncertainty in supply chains.
Fuel price shock drives industry adjustments
The pressure on airlines has been largely driven by a sharp increase in jet fuel prices following renewed conflict in the Middle East. Prices have more than doubled in a matter of months, rising from around $831 per tonne in late February to a peak of $1,838 in early April.
That volatility has forced airlines to reassess profitability on marginal routes, with some opting to consolidate services or cancel less profitable flights altogether.
“Airlines will be assessing poor performance flights and consolidating or cancelling as required,” said Julia Lo Bue-Said, chief executive of the Advantage Travel Partnership.
Despite the cuts, she stressed that the impact on UK travellers remains limited for now. “UK departures, including key summer sun destinations, remain unaffected, so customers can continue to book with confidence,” she added.
UK flights largely stable but monitoring continues
Industry groups in the UK have said operations are currently running normally, with no immediate fuel shortages reported. However, they have welcomed government contingency planning designed to protect airlines from losing valuable airport slots if flights are cancelled.
Cirium data shows that 120 UK flights have been cancelled in May so far — around 0.53% of total departures from the country. For comparison, consumer group Which? notes that under normal conditions, some airlines cancel more than 2% of flights less than 24 hours before departure.
Broader industry pressure and schedule reductions
The disruption is not limited to the UK. Several major international carriers have already scaled back their summer schedules in response to rising costs and uncertainty. Air France, KLM, Air Canada, Delta, and SAS are among those trimming capacity, while Germany’s Lufthansa has announced plans to remove around 20,000 flights between now and the end of October.
A Lufthansa finance executive said fuel supplies were currently secured through June, but warned that longer-term contingency measures could include additional refuelling stops on certain routes if destination airports cannot reliably supply fuel.
At the same time, budget airlines such as Wizz Air and easyJet have indicated they do not expect to cancel flights on a significant scale, with Wizz Air noting that competition is already pushing some European fares lower as airlines try to maintain demand.
Supply risks and geopolitical uncertainty
Behind the immediate cost pressures lies a deeper concern about supply security. The International Energy Agency (IEA), which advises governments on energy policy, has warned that Europe could face jet fuel shortages by June if alternative supply routes are not secured.
A key concern is the disruption of oil transport through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route for global energy flows. Any prolonged closure or instability in the region could further restrict access to Middle Eastern fuel supplies, from which Europe currently sources a significant share of its jet fuel imports.
In the UK, around 65% of jet fuel is imported, with a substantial portion traditionally coming from Middle Eastern producers — leaving the sector exposed to geopolitical shocks.
Government response ahead of peak travel season
With the UK half-term holidays and the summer travel season approaching, authorities are trying to reduce the risk of passenger disruption. Transport officials have introduced temporary measures allowing airlines more flexibility to cancel or consolidate flights without losing airport take-off and landing slots at major hubs such as Heathrow.
Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander said she remains confident that most travellers will not experience major disruption this summer, though she acknowledged that “this clearly is an evolving situation.”
The government has also approved measures allowing airlines to combine passengers from different flights onto fewer aircraft as a fuel-saving strategy.
Mixed outlook for passengers
Consumer groups have advised travellers to remain cautious but not alarmed. Rory Boland, editor of Which? Travel, noted that package holidays offer stronger protection in the event of cancellations, as operators are legally required to assist customers if plans change.
For now, airlines insist that the overall level of disruption remains limited. But with fuel prices volatile and geopolitical risks still unresolved, the industry is preparing for a summer where schedule stability may depend heavily on events far beyond the runway.