The latest warning came from the Lufthansa Group, which disclosed that disruptions around the strategically important Strait of Hormuz could add nearly $2 billion to its fuel expenses this year alone.
According to the German airline giant, the situation is already tightening global kerosene supply and driving up jet fuel prices at a time when airlines worldwide are struggling with volatile operating costs and unstable flight schedules.
Despite expectations of strong summer travel demand, Lufthansa acknowledged that the worsening supply situation could significantly impact profitability.
“The current closure of the Strait of Hormuz is leading to a shortage in kerosene supply and thus to a significant increase in kerosene prices,” the airline stated.
The company added that the spike in fuel costs is placing “a substantial burden on the cost base of Lufthansa Group airlines.”
The airline group also revealed that it has redirected aircraft capacity away from 10 cancelled Middle Eastern destinations toward routes in Asia and Africa as regional instability continues to reshape global aviation networks.
African carriers among the hardest hit
While major European airlines are warning investors about rising costs, analysts say African carriers remain far more vulnerable because most countries on the continent depend heavily on imported aviation fuel routed through the Gulf region.
Industry estimates from S&P Global and African Security Analysis suggest that roughly 70 percent of Africa’s jet fuel imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz, making the continent highly exposed to supply disruptions and sudden price spikes.
The impact is particularly severe because fuel already accounts for a large share of airline operating costs in Africa. According to the African Airlines Association, aviation fuel represents between 30 and over 40 percent of total airline expenses on the continent, significantly higher than the global average of about 20 to 25 percent.
With jet fuel prices reportedly climbing above $200 per barrel amid the regional crisis, several African airlines have already begun adjusting operations to manage the pressure.
Airlines adjust operations amid rising costs
Ethiopian Airlines reportedly suspended flights to several Middle Eastern destinations and cancelled more than 100 weekly services after the disruptions intensified. The airline said the cancellations affected nearly 50,000 passengers and cargo shipments, while losses reached approximately $137 million in a single week in March.
Similarly, Kenya Airways reduced flights to the Middle East by between 20 and 30 percent. To maintain passenger traffic, the airline deployed larger aircraft on some remaining routes.
In South Africa, low-cost carrier FlySafair introduced temporary fuel surcharges after Jet A1 fuel prices at coastal airports surged by nearly 70 percent within a week in March.
South African aviation company NAC also updated its contracts to include clauses allowing fuel surcharges to be passed on to customers whenever prices rise sharply during flight operations.
In Nigeria, Air Peace warned passengers about possible delays across its domestic and regional network due to ongoing aviation fuel supply challenges.
The airline noted that the fuel shortage had already started affecting scheduled departures.
Dangote refinery emerges as strategic supplier
Amid the growing crisis, Nigeria’s Dangote Petroleum Refinery is becoming increasingly important to regional aviation fuel supply following the commencement of operations in 2024.
Nigeria’s refined petroleum exports reportedly climbed to about 416,000 barrels per day in April, while the refinery has begun directly supplying Jet A1 aviation fuel to Ethiopian Airlines as traditional supply channels tighten.
The development is seen as a significant shift for Africa’s energy market, with analysts suggesting that local refining capacity could help reduce the continent’s dependence on imported aviation fuel over time.
However, pressure remains intense within Nigeria’s aviation sector. Domestic airlines have warned they may suspend operations if aviation fuel prices continue to rise, citing an estimated 270 percent increase in costs since February.
Industry fears prolonged instability
Aviation analysts warn that African carriers could face deeper financial strain if the Middle East conflict drags on, especially because many airlines on the continent operate on thinner profit margins and have weaker fuel supply buffers than their global counterparts.
Lufthansa Chief Executive Officer Carsten Spohr described the situation as another reminder of the aviation industry’s vulnerability to geopolitical crises.
“The war in the Middle East proves once again how exposed air traffic is and how vulnerable it remains,” Spohr said.