Most experts say the coronavirus around the world isn’t
going away and believe it could eventually become, like the flu, a persistent
but generally manageable threat if enough people gain immunity through
infections and vaccines.
In countries like Britain and the U.S., which have had
comparatively light restrictions against the omicron wave, there is a glimmer
of hope that the process might be underway. Cases skyrocketed in recent weeks
but have since dropped in Britain and may have leveled off in the U.S., perhaps
because the extremely contagious variant is running out of people to infect.
Some places already are talking about easing COVID-19 precautions.
China, which will be in the international spotlight when the
Beijing Winter Olympics begin in two weeks, is not seeing the same dynamic.
The communist government’s practice throughout the pandemic
of trying to find and isolate every infected person has largely protected
hospitals from becoming overwhelmed and staved off the deaths that have
engulfed most of the world.
But the uncompromising approach also means most people in
China have never been exposed to the virus. At the same time, the effectiveness
of China’s most widely used vaccines has been called into question. New studies
suggest they offer significantly less protection against infection from
omicron, even after three doses, than people get after booster shots of the leading
Western vaccines.
Together, those factors could complicate China’s effort to
get past the pandemic. Experts say if the country of 1.4 billion people were to
relax restrictions, it could face a surge similar to what Singapore or
Australia experienced, despite a highly vaccinated population.
“China’s susceptibility to outbreaks is likely to be more
because most people have not been exposed to the virus due to the stringent
measures that were put in place, thus lacking hybrid immunity, which is supposed
to prove better protection than vaccination alone,” said Dr. Vineeta Bal, an
immunologist at the Indian Institute of Science Education and Research.
“It is risky for China to reopen right now because omicron
is spreading globally, and even if the variant doesn’t cause major illness,
it’ll spread like wildfire,” she added.
Dali Yang, a professor who studies Chinese politics at the
University of Chicago, said, “It’s a big challenge, for leaders, especially
their rhetoric on saving lives. How do you justify opening up and then having
tens of thousands of people dying in the process?”
Chinese President Xi Jinping has cited China’s approach as a
“major strategic success” and evidence of the “significant advantages” of its
political system over Western liberal democracies.
The world’s most populous nation was the only major economy
to grow in 2020, and it accounted for a fraction of global deaths and
infections.
As part of the country’s tough-minded strategy for keeping
the virus at bay, residents in Chinese cities must display their infection
status on a government-monitored app to enter supermarkets, offices or even the
capital.
But weeks ahead of the Olympics, omicron is testing this
approach with outbreaks in the southern province of Guangdong, as well as
Beijing.
Organizers of the Olympics announced they will not sell
tickets locally and will allow only select spectators in. Foreign fans are not
allowed.
Authorities have also asked people to not visit their
hometowns around the Lunar New Year at the start of February, a move that will
dampen spending during China’s most important family holiday. And the major
city of Xi’an in the west and parts of Ningbo, a busy port south of Shanghai,
are under lockdown.
With the Communist Party gearing up for a major meeting this
fall, at which Xi is expected to be appointed to a third term as party leader,
China is unlikely to relax its policies in a major way any time soon.
“If the numbers from COVID start to skyrocket to big levels,
then this will reflect badly on his leadership,” said Willy Lam, an expert on
Chinese political leadership at the Chinese University of Hong Kong.
China relies heavily on its own Sinovac and Sinopharm
vaccines, along with several others made domestically. It has not approved the
Pfizer shot, even though a Chinese company bought distribution rights in 2020.
Instead, the focus is on developing China’s own mRNA
vaccines, like the Pfizer and Moderna formulas. One such vaccine is in late
trials.
Another option for China may be to track how the virus is
evolving and put off opening its borders until it becomes even milder. But it’s
anyone guess when or if that might happen.
“What will the next variant be? How serious will it be? You
can’t tell,” Bal said.
0 comments:
Post a Comment