Kaitano Dube
South Africa has experienced some extreme weather events in recent months. These have included floods and an uncommon tornado in South Africa's KwaZulu-Natal province, floods in the Eastern Cape and mid-latitude cyclones in the Western Cape. Kaitano Dube, a human geographer who has researched tourism, extreme weather and resilience to climatic threats, says these severe storms are set to disrupt tourism.Is climate change affecting tourism in South Africa?
The increase in carbon emissions has caused a rise in global
temperature, a key driver of climate change. In the past two years, and 2024 in
particular, temperatures have reached record highs. The number and severity of
extreme weather events and associated damage and losses from these have
increased worldwide.
Human-induced climate change and climate variability have
played a part in the increase in these extreme weather events. In southern
Africa and South Africa, the coastal areas have borne the brunt of extreme
weather events.
Coastal tourism has been hard hit by sea storms, tropical
cyclones, heatwaves, rising sea levels, rough seas, cut-off lows, wildfires,
coastal and fluvial flooding (where rivers burst their banks). The increased
intensity of tropical and mid-latitude cyclones (intense rainfall, wind and
high tides) has caused severe damage to coastal tourism infrastructure in South
Africa’s coastal provinces, which are a hub for tourism.
The KwaZulu-Natal floods in April 2022, which were worsened
by climate change, killed 435 people and were the most catastrophic ever in
that province. Again in April 2024, floods in KwaZulu-Natal destroyed holiday
homes, beaches and tourism infrastructure, turning holiday destinations into
disaster areas.
What economic losses has extreme weather caused in the
tourism sector?
The damage from extreme weather events has been costly to
guest houses, tourists, hotels and businesses operating adventure activities.
There have been losses in economic potential and revenue for small and big
cities.
The 2022 floods In KwaZulu-Natal caused an estimated R7
billion worth of damage (US$387 million) to 826 companies, many of these
tourism ventures. They also disrupted operations at King Shaka International
Airport, which is a key tourism resource.
In June 2024, a tornado and cut-off lows (isolated wells of
cold air in the upper atmosphere which tend to move slowly, often dropping
large amounts of rainfall in one place) again destroyed holiday homes in
KwaZulu-Natal. The weather also disrupted air traffic between Durban’s local
and international airports, resulting in domestic and international flights
being diverted. This is quite costly.
The port of Durban has experienced damage from floods,
disrupting cruise ships and yachts. The port of Cape Town is equally vulnerable
to extreme gusty winds, which play havoc with cruise ships, yachts and ferries,
including those to Robben Island, a major tourism hub.
Extreme weather has also affected inland provinces such as
Mpumalanga, affecting one of Africa’s largest game reserves, the nearly two
million hectare Kruger National Park. Droughts are a cause for concern. Floods
are increasing in these parks, devastating tourism infrastructure like camps,
roads, bridges and picnic sites.
My research has found that there are more than nine flood
hotspots in Mapungubwe National Park. Almost all flooding events there are
linked to extreme weather events. Mapungubwe is also a world heritage site of
immense historical importance, as the site of the largest indigenous African
kingdom in southern Africa between 1200 and 1290 AD.
Sea level rise and tides are another critical threat to
coastal tourism. There is a strong relationship between what happens in the
atmosphere and what happens in the ocean. Fronts, cyclones and storms that
affect the west and eastern coastline of the country are a major trigger for
high, damaging and disruptive tides.
Cut-off lows are equally notorious for triggering sea storm
surges, which can trigger coastal flooding in low-lying areas. Spring tides
combined with climate change have also been problematic recently: they’ve
caused catastrophic damage to coastal facilities, and dangerous rogue waves
(abnormally large waves).
My research on the effects of the rising sea levels on
coastal national parks has found that the most vulnerable coastal park is the
Garden Route National Park on the Indian Ocean side of South Africa. Properties
in the Tsitsikamma National Park, part of the Garden Route National Park, are
in perpetual danger from rising sea levels and surges. Parts of the park have
been flooded by gushing water from the ocean during high spring tide episodes.
The Knysna area of the Garden Route, followed by the Cape
Point section of Table Mountain in Cape Town, will experience a one metre rise
in sea level around 2100. Sea level rise is a threat to infrastructure,
heritage, beaches, tourism employees and tourist safety.
Fire and increased frequency of heat waves are also a risk
to several tourism destinations along the coast. The national parks that are
most vulnerable to increased incidences of fire include Table Mountain National
Park and the Garden Route National Park.
What can be done to prevent this damage to tourism?
There is a need to revisit development plans for tourism
infrastructure along the coastline. Infrastructure needs to be stronger and
more adaptable. There may also need to be a retreat from high-risk areas to
reduce damage and loss.
Infrastructure and buildings must be designed for climate
resilience, especially in areas prone to flooding. Urban planners must take
into account calculations of the maximum probable floods for specific areas.
Building codes have to be adjusted to respond to new climate scenarios.
These adaptation measures must be supported by a robust
early warning system to reduce losses. Appropriate disaster and business
insurance must be set up to ensure that tourism businesses can recover from
climate disasters. This has to be backed by progressive policies and technology
that are aimed at building climate change resilience.
Kaitano Dube, Faculty of Human Sciences Acting Research Professor, Vaal University of Technology