.jpeg)
Cocoa futures have experienced a remarkable increase of over 80% year-to-date, with a notable rise of more than 10% since October, primarily due to adverse weather conditions that have significantly impacted the harvest for the leading global producer.
In the Ivory Coast, which is the largest producer of cocoa beans, heavy rainfall—especially in the southwestern areas—has intensified since the last week of September.
These excessive rains have not only disrupted the harvesting process but have also complicated the drying of beans and delayed their transportation to ports.
Consequently, cocoa futures prices, which were already on an upward trajectory, have escalated further, pushing the year-to-date increase from 65% to over 80%, amid growing concerns about global supply.
Estimates from the Ivorian government indicate that cocoa bean arrivals at the nation’s ports from October 1 to 6, 2024, totaled only 13,000 tons, a significant decline from the 50,000 tons reported during the same timeframe last year.
Market Trends in Cocoa Futures
Cocoa futures, which are contracts traded on the market, reflect the global dynamics of cocoa supply and demand.
In 2024, these futures experienced a substantial rise, with gains accelerating from January to March, surpassing the levels recorded in the same period the previous year. By March, cocoa futures contracts had soared by 132%, reaching 9,776 units and demonstrating strong bullish momentum.
This significant increase in March was largely driven by adverse weather conditions in Ghana, the second-largest cocoa producer in the world. Strong seasonal winds and inadequate rainfall adversely affected the harvest, further contributing to the rise in prices.
The market has faced ongoing challenges in achieving stability, with concerns over supply contributing to increased volatility.
Recently, the arrival of significant rainfall in Ivory Coast has heightened worries, disrupting harvests, drying processes, and transportation, which has led to a rise in cocoa futures prices once again.
Insights from Ivorian Cocoa Traders
In discussions with reporters, a bulk buyer sourcing cocoa from the southwestern areas of Duekoue, Guiglo, and Man reported that heavy rains returned at the end of September, exacerbating difficulties in bean collection and transport.
“Since late September, heavy rains have made roads impassable and rendered village paths completely unusable,” he stated.
He added that he has been unable to collect 60 metric tons of cocoa that his middlemen had gathered from various villages.
An exporter based in Abidjan echoed these concerns, noting not only the delays in shipments but also the risk of quality degradation due to extended exposure to moisture.
“We are observing a slowdown in cocoa arrivals at the ports, but our primary concern is the declining quality of the beans.”
The Coffee and Cocoa Council (CCC) of Ivory Coast has indicated that the reduced cocoa availability this season is partly due to delays in seed stock, which have been compounded by adverse weather conditions.
Should the heavy rains persist, further declines in harvest, processing, and transportation conditions could lead to even higher cocoa futures prices in the upcoming weeks, as the market prepares for more significant supply shortages.