The Crude Oil Refineries Association of Nigeria (CORAN) has warned that government inaction — not the dominance of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery — is the real threat to competition in Nigeria’s downstream oil sector.

Speaking to The PUNCH, CORAN’s Publicity Secretary, Eche Idoko, said that while the Dangote refinery has attracted accusations of monopolistic power, the real problem lies in the government’s failure to ensure a fair and reliable crude oil supply for smaller modular refiners.

“For decades we relied on broken state refineries and expensive fuel imports,” Idoko said. “Now private refineries are transforming the energy landscape. This revolution promises economic growth, jobs, and energy security. But fears that the Dangote Refinery will become a monopoly miss the real problem. Government inaction is the true threat to competition.”

He argued that supporting local refining would significantly reduce Nigeria’s dependence on imported fuel, saving billions in foreign exchange while creating over 100,000 jobs in operations, logistics, and supporting industries like petrochemicals, plastics, and fertiliser production.

Idoko pushed back on claims that Dangote’s massive new plant automatically implies monopoly. He pointed out that Nigeria already has multiple operational or near-complete modular refineries that can foster healthy competition. Among them are:

  • The 11,000 barrels-per-day (bpd) Aradel Refinery in Rivers State
  • The 5,000bpd Waltersmith Refinery in Imo State
  • The 10,000bpd OPAC Refinery in Delta State
  • The 20,000bpd Clairgold Refinery under development in Delta State
  • The 12,000bpd Azikel Refinery nearing completion in Bayelsa State

“This diversity promotes regional fuel supply, flexible production, and fair pricing,” he said.

But Idoko also highlighted a critical structural flaw: there is no effective system guaranteeing access to domestic crude for all refiners. While Dangote can negotiate private deals to secure crude oil, smaller operators struggle to get reliable, affordable feedstock. He urged the government to fully enforce the Domestic Crude Supply Obligation (DCSO) policy to ensure fair and equitable crude allocation.

“Dangote’s size doesn’t make him a monopoly,” he said. “The real danger is when government fails to give others access to crude.”

Idoko also flagged another barrier to competition: the lack of financing for essential refinery equipment such as catalytic reformers, which are needed to produce petrol, and desulfurisation units, required to meet clean fuel standards. He called on the government to create a dedicated Midstream Refinery Development Fund (MRDEF) to support these critical investments.

He recommended the government:

  • Guarantee crude access via the DCSO policy
  • Launch the MRDEF to help refiners finance PMS-producing units (reformers/desulfurisers)
  • Expand the Nigerian Content Development and Monitoring Board (NCDMB)’s financing model to include modular refineries
  • Pass pro-competition laws ensuring fair pricing and infrastructure sharing

According to Idoko, claims of an inevitable monopoly ignore the fact that many modular refineries are already selling products. “Global markets show that big and small players coexist,” he said. “Dangote is one player among many – including Aradel, Waltersmith, Clairgold, and other CORAN members.”

He argued that with decisive government support, the sector could achieve true energy security. “History shows that intervention works in the gas and agriculture sectors. The government should replicate this for refining, so Nigeria can gain true energy freedom,” he said.

In a pointed warning, he concluded: “If this fails, the government’s inaction will create the very monopoly it fears. The choice is clear. The government needs to act now for competition, or enable monopoly through neglect.”

Meanwhile, a recent report by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission underscored the scale of the challenge. It revealed that 82% of the crude oil produced in Nigeria during the first quarter of 2025 was exported, leaving just 18% for local refineries — a stark imbalance that, if unaddressed, threatens to derail the country’s push for self-sufficiency in fuel production.