At a regular briefing, Chinese commerce ministry spokesperson He Yongqian said Tokyo’s position had “undermined the political foundation” of the relationship and jeopardised long-standing economic cooperation. He warned that if Japan “continues down the wrong path,” China would take unspecified but firm countermeasures, adding that the responsibility for any fallout would “be borne by Japan.”
A spokesperson for Takaichi later stressed that her comments did not alter Japan’s established Taiwan policy, which recognises China diplomatically but maintains close ties with Taiwan under unofficial frameworks.
Trade Relationship at Stake
China is Japan’s second-largest export market, absorbing roughly $125 billion in goods last year—primarily machinery, semiconductors, and automobiles. Analysts note that Japan has few alternative markets capable of replacing China’s scale: South Korea, its third-largest destination, took in just $46 billion over the same period, according to UN trade data.
Uncertainty has already spread to Japan's seafood industry, which previously endured a sweeping Chinese ban following the release of treated wastewater from the Fukushima nuclear plant in 2023. When asked about reports that Beijing may again target seafood imports, China’s commerce ministry said it had no information to share. The precedent, however, looms large: Beijing has used trade actions in prior disputes, including a 2010 halt of rare earth exports during tensions over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands.
US Signals Strong Backing for Tokyo
American officials swiftly weighed in. U.S. Ambassador to Japan George Glass said Washington “will be there for our ally again,” referencing U.S. support during China’s previous seafood ban. The State Department’s deputy spokesperson Tommy Pigott reaffirmed that U.S. support for Japan was “unwavering” and reiterated Washington’s opposition to unilateral actions that could alter the status quo across the Taiwan Strait or nearby seas.
Seafood Exporters Brace for Renewed Disruptions
Companies in Japan’s coastal regions worry that progress made since China resumed accepting some marine products could quickly unravel. Kazuya Yamazaki, head of Sanwa Fisheries in Hokkaido, said the situation had taken a sudden step backward just as exporters were regaining momentum. His firm, one of nearly 700 applying for new export permits, had once delivered about 200 metric tons of scallops annually to China.
“Given the nature of the issue, this might well happen again,” Yamazaki said, noting industry concern that political tensions could translate into abrupt trade barriers.
Little Room for Diplomatic Retreat
Japanese officials and regional analysts caution that neither side appears ready to soften its stance. Joseph Kraft of Rorschach Advisory described the standoff as one without “any immediate off-ramp,” arguing that Beijing has raised the political stakes while Takaichi cannot retract her comments without severe domestic political costs.
“The only solution is to play the long game,” Kraft said, suggesting that both sides may need to endure prolonged friction before conditions stabilize.
Hopes for diplomatic engagement also dimmed when China’s foreign ministry stated that there were no plans for Premier Li Qiang to meet Takaichi on the sidelines of this weekend’s G20 summit in South Africa—an opportunity some had viewed as a potential opening to ease tensions.