Firms such as Rigetti Computing, IonQ, D-Wave Quantum, and Quantum Computing Inc.—collectively dubbed the “Quantum 4”—are racing to commercialize machines capable of solving problems far beyond the reach of today’s classical computers. The companies have captured investor imagination with promises of breakthroughs in fields ranging from cryptography to drug discovery, often in tandem with advances in artificial intelligence.
“It feels like science fiction has moved into the world of real technological possibility,” said Sylvia Jablonski, Chief Investment Officer at Defiance ETFs, which manages the Defiance Quantum fund.
Stock Gains Defy Fundamentals
Rigetti’s stock epitomizes the frenzy: it has surged from $1.06 to a recent high of $58 before settling around $38, trading at over 1,000 times its sales. By contrast, AI-chip giant Nvidia trades at roughly 50 times sales. Rigetti’s revenue forecast for 2026 stands at just $21.9 million, according to LSEG, despite a $13 billion market capitalization.
“How else can you explain a company with $13 billion in value but only $22 million in forecast revenue?” asked Christopher Poch, CEO of Promethium Advisors, likening investor enthusiasm to a “magic act.”
Even so, analysts remain split. Benchmark Equity Research’s David Williams maintains a “buy” rating on Rigetti and recently raised his target to $50 per share, acknowledging that “valuation on quantum names is more art than science.”
By contrast, B. Riley Wealth’s Craig Ellis downgraded Rigetti to “neutral” on Monday, citing “premium valuation” concerns, though he lifted his target to $42. The stock traded at $36.43 on Tuesday, down nearly 7%.
Institutional Interest and Government Buzz
The excitement isn’t limited to retail investors. JPMorgan Chase last month unveiled plans to invest up to $10 billion in “strategically important” sectors such as quantum computing. IBM and HSBC also announced a quantum-based algorithmic bond trading platform, sparking renewed enthusiasm.
Reports that the U.S. government may invest in quantum firms in exchange for equity stakes added fuel to the rally, though the Department of Commerce told Reuters it is “not currently negotiating” such deals.
Promise Meets Uncertainty
Quantum computing has been hailed as a “holy grail of computing”, with McKinsey projecting the global market could exceed $100 billion in the coming years. Yet, even optimists caution that the technology remains in its infancy.
“The use case is undeniable—and undeniably awesome,” said Rick Bradt, a portfolio manager at Neuberger Berman. “But there’s still a lot of uncertainty about the timing.”
For now, the Quantum 4 represent both the allure and the risk of chasing the next great technological revolution—a market where investors must decide whether they are buying into the future or simply another speculative mirage.