The U.S. chipmaker plans to fulfil initial orders using existing inventory, with early shipments expected to total between 5,000 and 10,000 chip modules. That volume is equivalent to roughly 40,000 to 80,000 H200 AI chips, according to two of the sources. Nvidia has also indicated that it intends to expand production capacity for the chips, with orders for that additional capacity opening in the second quarter of 2026.
However, the timeline remains uncertain. Chinese authorities have not yet approved any H200 purchases, and the plan could change depending on government decisions in Beijing. “The whole plan is contingent on government approval,” one source said. “Nothing is certain until we get the official go-ahead.”
The discussions are private, and the sources declined to be identified. Nvidia and China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
Policy Shift Opens Door to Sales
The proposed shipments follow a significant policy shift by the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump, who said earlier this month that Washington would allow H200 chip sales to China, subject to a 25% fee. Reuters reported last week that the Trump administration had launched an inter-agency review of license applications for the exports, moving ahead with the pledge to permit such sales.
This marks a reversal from the previous U.S. stance under the Biden administration, which imposed a ban on advanced AI chip exports to China on national security grounds.
Although the H200 belongs to Nvidia’s older Hopper product line and has since been surpassed by the company’s newer Blackwell chips, it remains widely used in artificial intelligence workloads. Nvidia has shifted much of its production capacity toward Blackwell and its upcoming Rubin line, making H200 supply relatively limited.
China Weighs Strategic Trade-Offs
Trump’s decision comes as China accelerates efforts to build a domestic AI chip industry. While local manufacturers have made progress, they have yet to match the performance of Nvidia’s H200, prompting concerns among policymakers that allowing imports could undermine domestic development.
Chinese officials reportedly held emergency meetings earlier this month to discuss the issue and are weighing whether to approve the shipments. One proposal under consideration would require each H200 purchase to be bundled with a certain ratio of domestically produced chips, according to earlier reports.
For Chinese technology giants such as Alibaba Group and ByteDance, which have expressed interest in the H200, the potential approval would offer access to processors estimated to be about six times more powerful than the H20—a downgraded chip Nvidia previously designed specifically for the Chinese market.
If approved, the shipments would signal a cautious reopening of the AI chip trade between the world’s two largest economies, even as strategic competition in artificial intelligence continues to intensify.