At the heart of the effort is the BSWA project, located in the Niger Delta offshore, where Shell—through its subsidiary Shell Nigeria Exploration and Production Company (SNEPCo)—is advancing an ambitious plan to develop one of Nigeria’s most significant deepwater complexes. During talks with Nigerian President Bola Tinubu, Shell CEO Wael Sawan highlighted the project’s scale and potential, noting that if it reaches a final investment decision (FID), it could attract up to $20 billion in foreign direct investment from Shell and its partners.
The BSWA field is not new. The Bonga Southwest discovery dates back to 2001, while the Aparo discovery followed around 2003. The field straddles multiple oil mining leases, primarily OML 118, operated by Shell, along with adjacent blocks involving partners such as Chevron. Estimates suggest the project holds around 820 million barrels of recoverable reserves, with peak production potential of up to 220,000 barrels per day, though more conservative estimates place peak output closer to 150,000 bpd.
Development plans for BSWA are extensive. They include drilling multiple wells, building extensive subsea infrastructure, and deploying a large floating production, storage, and offloading (FPSO) vessel—potentially one of the largest ever built for the field. Yet despite its potential, the project has been repeatedly delayed over the past decade, stalled by fiscal uncertainty, regulatory bottlenecks, partner disagreements, and shifting global investment priorities.
Now, however, momentum is building. Shell relaunched tenders—including for the FPSO—earlier in 2026, signaling renewed urgency. The Nigerian government has also responded by approving targeted, investment-linked incentives specifically for BSWA, including fiscal relief designed to improve the project’s economic viability. Shell has indicated it is targeting an FID as early as 2027, and President Tinubu has publicly urged that the project be sanctioned by May 2027.
But the importance of the Bonga revival extends well beyond BSWA alone. The $20 billion commitment is widely viewed as a strong endorsement of Nigeria’s recent upstream reforms under the Tinubu administration, including improved fiscal terms and a renewed focus on increasing production toward a 2 million-barrel-per-day target.
Crucially, the project also offers a potential lifeline to several other deepwater assets that have long been idle or underdeveloped. Nigeria’s offshore portfolio includes multiple stranded discoveries and marginal fields that have failed to progress due to high costs, lack of infrastructure, and commercial uncertainty. Analysts believe that the BSWA development could breathe new life into at least five such assets by providing shared infrastructure and export capacity.
This potential “hub-and-spoke” model is typical in deepwater developments. By tying smaller or stranded fields into the BSWA infrastructure—particularly via subsea tie-backs to a new or expanded FPSO—these assets could become economically viable without requiring costly standalone projects. Potential beneficiaries may include:
- Extensions or satellite deposits around the existing Bonga field, which has produced more than 1 billion barrels since 2005 and recently advanced Bonga North through a subsea tie-back, reaching FID in late 2024.
- Stranded prospects in OML 118 and nearby blocks that have lacked viable standalone economics.
- Other deepwater discoveries that have remained dormant due to previous cost and regulatory constraints.
The broader economic implications of this revival are significant. Nigeria’s oil sector has faced underinvestment in recent years, contributing to declining rig counts and production shortfalls. A project of BSWA’s scale could attract additional foreign direct investment, create jobs—both directly and through local content requirements—and boost government revenues through taxes and royalties. It also supports ambitions such as the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission’s “Project 1 Million Barrels” initiative, aimed at increasing national output.
Shell’s renewed push into deepwater Nigeria also reflects a broader strategic shift. The company has divested from several onshore assets while increasing its stake in core deepwater operations—such as acquiring additional interests from TotalEnergies in 2025, raising its stake in the Bonga field to around 65%. For the BSWA project to move forward, alignment among partners—including Esso (ExxonMobil), Nigerian Agip (ENI/Oando), and potentially Chevron—will be essential.
Challenges remain. Geopolitical risks, oil price volatility, local content obligations, and environmental concerns could all influence the project’s timeline and economics. Yet the Bonga revival has generated optimism across Nigeria’s energy sector. If Shell and its partners achieve FID and move into development, the project could trigger a broader wave of deepwater activity—turning idle assets into producing fields and reinforcing Nigeria’s position as Africa’s leading oil producer.
Ultimately, the $20 billion Bonga revival may prove transformative. It is not just a single project—it is a potential catalyst for renewed investment, renewed production, and renewed confidence in Nigeria’s offshore future.