At the centre of the conversation is One Battle After Another, a provocative new film widely expected to dominate the nominations. The project has emerged as a frontrunner in a year marked by fewer traditional blockbusters and a stronger showing from prestige dramas and international talent. Other films tipped to perform strongly include Marty Supreme, Frankenstein, Sentimental Value, Bugonia and The Secret Agent.
This year’s awards season has proven particularly challenging for UK talent. British actors are noticeably underrepresented, with Wunmi Mosaku—praised for her role in the vampire horror Sinners—standing out as one of the few UK performers with a realistic chance of securing an acting nomination. In contrast, Irish talent is enjoying a banner year, led by Jessie Buckley and Paul Mescal, both expected to be recognised for their performances in the screen adaptation of Maggie O’Farrell’s novel Hamnet.
The ceremony itself will take place on 15 March, with US comedian Conan O’Brien returning as host of the Academy Awards.
A quieter year for blockbuster franchises
Two of last year’s biggest box-office successes, Wicked: For Good and Avatar: Fire and Ash, appear unlikely to replicate the awards success of their predecessors. Wicked’s second instalment received a more muted critical response, while fatigue surrounding the Avatar franchise—combined with director James Cameron’s relaxed attitude toward awards campaigning—has dampened expectations.
“You can play the awards game, or you can play the game I like to play and that's to make movies people actually go to,” Cameron remarked last month, dismissing the importance of aggressive Oscar promotion.
With best picture nominations for these sequels looking doubtful, hopes are even slimmer for A Minecraft Movie, which is widely considered outside serious awards contention.
British hopes fade, Irish stars rise
The UK’s diminished presence is reflected in recent awards data. Only two of the 36 acting nominees at the Golden Globes came from the UK—Cynthia Erivo (Wicked: For Good) and Emily Blunt (The Smashing Machine)—and neither is expected to break through at the Oscars.
Mosaku’s performance in Sinners remains Britain’s strongest prospect, having earned her a supporting actress nomination at the Actor Awards (formerly SAG) and a place on the Bafta longlist. Should all UK actors miss out, it would mark the first time since 1986 that no British performers are nominated in the Oscar acting categories.
Ireland, meanwhile, is enjoying a surge in recognition. Jessie Buckley is widely considered the favourite for best actress for Hamnet, while Paul Mescal is expected to secure a supporting actor nomination for the same film.
DiCaprio and PTA’s defining moment
Director Paul Thomas Anderson—often referred to as PTA—has long been a fixture of awards season without ever securing an Oscar, despite 11 career nominations for films including There Will Be Blood, Phantom Thread and Licorice Pizza. That may finally change this year.
One Battle After Another, which Anderson wrote, directed and produced, has swept through the awards circuit despite struggling to break even financially. The film follows a former revolutionary who reunites with his old allies to rescue his daughter after she is kidnapped by a white supremacist group.
The film’s awards strength is amplified by the depth of its cast. As many as 25% of the acting nomination slots could be filled by performers from the film, including Leonardo DiCaprio, Teyana Taylor, Chase Infiniti, Sean Penn and Benicio Del Toro.
A crowded best actor field
This year’s best actor race is dominated by high-profile names. DiCaprio faces stiff competition from Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme), Michael B Jordan (Sinners), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon) and Jesse Plemons (Bugonia).
Despite the abundance of star power, several A-list actors appear to have lost momentum in recent weeks. Julia Roberts (After The Hunt), George Clooney (Jay Kelly), Dwayne Johnson (The Smashing Machine), Jennifer Lawrence (Die My Love) and Sydney Sweeney (Christy) all featured in awards conversations earlier in the season but now seem unlikely to secure nominations.
First-time nominees and overdue recognition
Many potential first-time nominees are still early in their careers, including Chase Infiniti (25), Elle Fanning (27) and Jacob Elordi (28). However, the field also includes several veteran actors who have surprisingly never been nominated by the Academy, such as Rose Byrne (46), Wagner Moura (49), Joel Edgerton (51) and Stellan Skarsgård (74).
Perhaps the most notable potential breakthrough is Adam Sandler, who could earn his first Oscar nomination for Jay Kelly. Once synonymous with box-office comedies and a record nine Razzie Awards, Sandler’s recognition would reflect his successful late-career shift toward more dramatic roles.
Comebacks and long waits
Several performers could mark major comebacks with nominations this year. Amy Madigan, now 75, is in contention for best supporting actress for her role in the horror film Weapons. Her last—and only—Oscar nomination came 40 years ago for Twice in a Lifetime.
Kate Hudson could also return to the Oscar fold with Song Sung Blue, potentially earning her first nomination since Almost Famous 25 years ago. A nomination for Benicio Del Toro would be his first in 22 years.
New categories and new rules
This year marks the introduction of a new Academy Award for best casting, recognising the impact of ensemble selection on a film’s success. Many best picture frontrunners are expected to feature prominently in the category. Looking ahead, the Academy has also announced that from 2028 it will introduce an award for best stunt design, following the lead of the Actor Awards.
Fitting these new categories into an already lengthy ceremony remains a challenge, though this may become less pressing when the Oscars move to YouTube in 2029, freeing the event from traditional broadcast time constraints.
Another notable change this year is a new rule requiring voters to actually watch the films they are voting on. Academy members must either view contenders via the organisation’s streaming service or submit proof of a cinema screening—a move that has been met with cautious optimism and some scepticism.
Animation and global hits
Netflix’s animated hit KPop Demon Hunters, which follows a girl group battling demons between performances, is the frontrunner for best animated feature. The film is also heavily favoured to win best original song for Golden, one of last year’s biggest hits, outperforming even Zootopia 2 (Zootropolis 2 in the UK), despite its billion-dollar box office.
How to watch the announcements
The nominations will be revealed by The Color Purple star Danielle Brooks and Thunderbolts and Top Gun: Maverick actor Lewis Pullman. The announcement will be streamed on the Academy’s website and across its YouTube, Instagram, TikTok and Facebook channels. Coverage will also be available on the BBC News website, which will host a live page during the 20-minute announcement, including a mid-way pause for a US network ABC commercial break.
As the industry waits, this year’s Oscar nominations promise a blend of political storytelling, emerging talent, overdue recognition and a shifting definition of what awards success now looks like in Hollywood.