OPEC pumped about 28.40 million barrels per day (bpd) last month, down roughly 100,000 bpd from November’s revised level. Iran recorded the largest drop, underscoring how geopolitical pressures continue to shape supply despite efforts by the producer group and its allies to gradually raise output.
The OPEC+ alliance—which includes OPEC members and non-OPEC producers such as Russia—has slowed the pace of its monthly production increases amid concerns about a potential supply glut. Several members are already producing near capacity, while others are required to make additional cuts to compensate for earlier overproduction, limiting the real-world impact of agreed output hikes.
Under a December agreement covering eight OPEC+ members, five OPEC countries—Algeria, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates—were scheduled to raise production by a combined 85,000 bpd. However, these increases were set to be more than offset by compensation cuts totaling 135,000 bpd for Iraq and the UAE. The survey found that the actual increase from the five producers was just 20,000 bpd.
Sanctions were a key driver of the decline in Iranian output, which fell by about 100,000 bpd in December. The United States has imposed restrictions aimed at curbing Iran’s oil exports over its nuclear program, with additional measures announced during the month. Export volumes also tend to fluctuate as tankers return from deliveries, according to shipping analysts.
Venezuelan production dropped by an estimated 70,000 bpd, the survey showed, amid tighter U.S. enforcement intended to restrict oil shipments. The impact of these measures is expected to intensify. Consultancy Energy Aspects said it had not observed a major production shift for most of December but forecast that Venezuela’s crude and condensate output would fall to around 950,000 bpd this month, from about 1.1 million bpd in December.
Shipping data and export records from state oil company PDVSA indicate that Venezuela’s exports of crude and residual fuel averaged roughly 952,000 bpd in November, before plunging to about 498,000 bpd in December. Much of the unsold oil appears to have been diverted into onshore and floating storage.
Output levels in Iraq and the UAE were broadly unchanged, though estimates vary widely. While the Reuters survey and OPEC’s own secondary sources suggest these producers are pumping close to their quotas, other assessments—such as those from the International Energy Agency—indicate significantly higher production.
The survey is designed to track oil flows to the market and draws on data from financial group LSEG, shipping trackers including Kpler, and information from oil companies, OPEC sources and industry consultants.