According to people familiar with the talks, White House and State Department officials have told U.S. oil executives in recent weeks that any bid to reclaim losses from Venezuela’s past nationalizations would depend on companies moving quickly to reinvest and help rebuild the country’s battered oil sector. The outreach was framed around a scenario in which Venezuela’s political leadership changes and U.S. firms are granted a pathway back into the industry.
During the 2000s, the Venezuelan government under then-President Hugo Chávez expropriated assets belonging to several international oil companies that refused to cede greater operational control to the state-run oil company, Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA). While Chevron negotiated to remain in the country through joint ventures with PDVSA, rivals Exxon Mobil and ConocoPhillips exited Venezuela and pursued international arbitration to recover their losses.
ConocoPhillips has long sought about $12 billion in compensation linked to the nationalization of its Venezuelan assets, while Exxon Mobil filed arbitration claims amounting to roughly $1.65 billion. Any renewed engagement, however, would come at a high cost. U.S. officials have indicated that oil companies would be expected to fund the initial rebuilding of Venezuela’s oil infrastructure themselves, with repayment of expropriation-related claims viewed as a longer-term outcome rather than an immediate settlement.
President Donald Trump added momentum to the issue over the weekend, stating that American companies were ready to return to Venezuela and invest in reviving its struggling oil industry, following the capture and removal of President Nicolás Maduro by U.S. forces. Trump had previously drawn attention to Venezuela’s expropriations when he ordered a blockade of sanctioned oil tankers last month.
Despite the administration’s push, industry executives remain cautious. Whether companies ultimately return will depend on how boards and shareholders assess the financial, legal and political risks of re-entering Venezuela, sources said. In a statement to Reuters, ConocoPhillips said it was monitoring developments in Venezuela and their implications for global energy supply, but cautioned that it would be premature to speculate on future investments.
Even if U.S. oil companies do agree to return, analysts warn that any meaningful increase in production would likely take years. Venezuela holds one of the world’s largest proven oil reserves, but output has collapsed over decades due to mismanagement, underinvestment and the impact of U.S. sanctions. The country also faces major hurdles, including deteriorated infrastructure, security concerns, uncertainty over contractual frameworks and questions surrounding the legality and long-term consequences of recent U.S. actions.
A founding member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Venezuela once produced as much as 3.5 million barrels per day in the 1970s, accounting for more than 7 per cent of global supply at the time. Production fell below 2 million barrels per day in the 2010s and averaged about 1.1 million barrels per day last year, roughly 1 per cent of global output.
These structural challenges suggest that while Venezuela’s oil sector could again attract foreign investment, its recovery—along with any compensation to former asset owners—would be gradual and fraught with uncertainty.