While global tourism expanded in 2025 — with international arrivals rising by 4% worldwide — the United States moved in the opposite direction. Foreign visitor numbers to the U.S. fell by 5.4% over the year, a sharper contraction than the 2017–18 slowdown and the most significant drop outside the height of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Industry analysts warn that the downturn, already being described as a “Trump slump,” could extend into 2026 despite the anticipated draw of international football fans.
Canadian travel drops sharply
The most dramatic decline has come from Canada, historically the largest source of foreign visitors to the United States. In 2024, Canadian travelers generated approximately 20.4 million visits and US$20.5 billion in spending, supporting an estimated 140,000 American jobs, according to the U.S. Travel Association.
In 2025, however, Canadian travel to the U.S. plunged by nearly 30%.
The fallout is being felt most acutely in border states reliant on short car trips for retail, dining, entertainment and overnight stays. A sharp drop in return road crossings into Canada has signaled stress for border economies, prompting tourism boards and local officials to launch marketing campaigns and even “Canadian-only” promotions.
Tourism-dependent destinations farther south are also responding. In Las Vegas, hotels have introduced exchange-rate parity offers and gambling incentives to lure back Canadian visitors.
Sunbelt states such as Florida, Arizona and California are reporting declines not only in short-term arrivals but also among Canadian “snowbirds.” Property listings by Canadians in Florida and Arizona have reportedly increased, raising concerns about reduced seasonal spending, healthcare use and local tax revenues.
Policy, currency and safety concerns
Observers attribute much of the downturn to policy decisions under President Donald Trump. Stricter immigration enforcement, heightened border controls, tariff hikes to levels not seen since 1935, and an assertive foreign policy stance have collectively shaped perceptions abroad.
Currency movements have compounded the issue. A weakened Canadian dollar in 2025 made cross-border shopping trips and vacations significantly more expensive, disproportionately affecting short-stay visitors.
Safety concerns have also entered the equation. Several countries have issued travel advisories regarding visits to the United States, citing border enforcement practices. Germany is among the most recent to update its guidance, adding to unease among prospective travelers.
Public officials in Canada and parts of Europe have even encouraged citizens to vacation domestically, further dampening travel intent to the U.S.
Billions at stake
According to estimates, the U.S. could lose as much as US$30 billion in international tourism revenue in 2025 alone.
The broader trend is equally concerning. The U.S. share of global international travel has fallen steadily from 8.4% in 1996 to 4.9% in 2024 and is projected to dip further to 4.8% in 2025. Meanwhile, arrivals to competing destinations such as France, Greece, Mexico and Italy are forecast to rise.
The downturn extends beyond leisure travel. Business travel to the United States has softened as well, with fewer corporate visitors arriving from every major global region.
Julia Simpson, president and CEO of the World Travel & Tourism Council, described the situation in May 2025 as a “wake-up call” for Washington.
“The world’s biggest travel and tourism economy is heading in the wrong direction,” she said. “While other nations are rolling out the welcome mat, the U.S. government is putting up the ‘closed’ sign.”
Will the World Cup reverse the slide?
With 75% of FIFA World Cup matches scheduled to take place across U.S. cities, industry leaders are hoping for a substantial visitor bump in 2026. Historically, host nations benefit from heightened global attention, although economic impacts are often overstated.
Yet uncertainties remain. A newly introduced US$250 visa integrity fee and expanded social media screening requirements may deter some visitors. Additionally, the U.S. has imposed travel bans on countries including Senegal, Ivory Coast, Iran and Haiti — all of which have qualified for the tournament.
Even former FIFA president Sepp Blatter has suggested fans consider avoiding travel to the United States, though bookings for flights and hotels reportedly rose after match schedules and host cities were announced in December.
European football officials have discussed the possibility of symbolic boycotts, though such action appears unlikely given the financial stakes for national associations and teams.
Outlook uncertain
Compounding the challenge, federal funding cuts to Brand USA in mid-2025 have limited the country’s ability to counter negative perceptions through coordinated marketing campaigns.
While passionate football supporters may still travel to support their national teams, high ticket prices, visa barriers and reputational damage could blunt the anticipated World Cup dividend.
Absent significant policy shifts, tourism experts caution that a meaningful recovery may take years, even if 2026 brings a temporary surge tied to the world’s most-watched sporting event.