The country told OPEC that its oil output rose by 8,000 bpd in
September from about 1.24 million bpd in the previous month, according to the
cartel’s latest report released on Wednesday.
OPEC uses secondary sources to monitor its oil output, but
also publishes a table of figures submitted by its member countries.
According to secondary sources, Nigeria’s production
increased to 1.45 million bpd in September from about 1.30 million bpd in
August, compared to its OPEC quota of 1.61 million bpd.
The 13-member group said its crude oil production averaged
27.33 million bpd in September, higher by 0.49 million bpd month-on-month.
“Crude oil output increased mainly in Nigeria, Saudi Arabia
and Iraq,” it said.
The Chief Commodities Economist at London-based Capital
Economics, Caroline Bain, said in a note on Wednesday that even if OPEC raised
quotas, there remained doubts about higher supply.
“OPEC moved closer to its collective target output last
month. However, it is now clear that if the group were to answer calls to raise
output, it would involve abandoning the current quota system and allowing a few
producers with available capacity to produce more,” she said.
She noted that the group’s September output was 390,000 bpd
below its total output target owing to significant underperformance in August.
She said, “The higher output in September was driven by a
rebound in supply from Nigeria (although it is still below target) and a jump
in production in Iraq (which is now above quota, again).
“There is considerable uncertainty about whether Nigeria can
continue to raise output, but the September data do at least offer some hope
that OPEC production can draw closer to its target.”
Bain noted that the recent rise in oil prices had led to
political pressure on the group to raise its quotas.
“However, even if the group were to raise its production
targets, it may be a largely symbolic gesture given that African producers in
particular look likely to struggle to meaningfully raise output for some time
yet,” she added.