Since June 2023, each month has surpassed its previous
temperature record, marking an unprecedented 13-month period of exceptional
global heat, as reported by the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S).
“This is more than a statistical oddity and it highlights a
large and continuing shift in our climate,” said the service director, Carlo
Buontempo.
“Even if this specific streak of extremes ends at some
point, we are bound to see new records being broken as the climate continues to
warm.”
It was "unavoidable" that this would occur as long
as humanity persisted in releasing heat-trapping gases into the atmosphere, he
stated.
The global average temperature reached a new peak last
month, surpassing the previous record set in June 2023. This unprecedented high
occurred during a year characterized by extreme climate events.
The intense heat has affected extensive areas globally,
including India, Saudi Arabia, the United States, and Mexico, during the first
half of the current year.
Inundation events, a phenomenon scientists have also
associated with a warmer planet, resulted in substantial flooding in Kenya,
China, Brazil, Afghanistan, Russia, and France.
Wildfires have caused significant devastation in Greece and
Canada. Additionally, Hurricane Beryl made history last week by becoming the
earliest Category 5 Atlantic hurricane ever recorded, impacting several
Caribbean islands in its path.
Warmer oceans
In reference to the temperature records, Julien Nicolas, a
senior scientist at C3S, stated that the global rise in temperature is a
contributing factor. However, it is not the sole cause.
“That was part of the factors behind the temperature
records, but it was not the only one,” he told AFP.
The recent rise in ocean temperatures has reached
unprecedented levels.
The Atlantic, Northern Pacific, and Indian Oceans’ recorded
sea surface temperatures contributed to the global temperature increase.
Sea surface temperatures reached a significant milestone in
June, marking 15 consecutive months of record-breaking highs. This
unprecedented occurrence, as described by Nicolas, is particularly noteworthy
and demands attention.
Approximately 70% of the Earth’s surface is covered by
oceans, which absorb approximately 90% of the additional heat resulting from
increased climate-warming emissions.
“What happens to the ocean surface has an important impact
on the air temperature above the surface and global average temperature as
well,” he said.
Nevertheless, the global climate is poised to transition
into a La Nina phase, characterized by its cooling impact.
“We can expect the global (air) temperature to taper down in
the next few months,” said Nicolas.
“If these record (sea surface) temperatures persist, even as
La Nina conditions develop that might lead to 2024 being warmer than 2023. But
it’s too early to tell,” he added.
Global air temperatures for the twelve-month period ending
in June 2024 were the highest on record, according to Copernicus. The average
temperature was 1.64 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
The 1.5C warming limit established by 196 nations in Paris
in 2015 has not yet been surpassed, as this objective is assessed over decades
rather than individual years.
Last month, Copernicus released a report indicating an 80% probability that Earth’s average annual temperatures will surpass the 1.5C threshold, albeit temporarily, within the next five-year period.