Data released by Eurostat on Friday highlights the growing momentum in EU trade, particularly with the United States, while also revealing a mixed picture for other key markets.
US-EU Trade Deal Drives Export Growth
Exports from the euro area climbed to €256.6 billion in September, representing a 7.7% year-on-year increase, while imports rose to €237.1 billion, up 5.3%. The resulting trade surplus reflects a notable rebound in US-bound shipments, bolstered by the recently implemented EU-US trade agreement.
The deal, negotiated last summer between European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and US President Donald Trump, established a uniform 15% tariff across multiple sectors, including automobiles, semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and lumber. This arrangement appears to have encouraged stronger transatlantic trade flows.
EU exports to the US jumped to €53.1 billion in September, a 15.4% rise from the previous year, making the United States the fastest-growing export destination for the eurozone. Imports from the US also strengthened, reaching €30.9 billion, up 12.5% year-on-year. As a result, the EU’s trade surplus with the US widened to €22.2 billion, compared with €18.5 billion in September 2024.
Mixed Performance Elsewhere
Trade with other major partners, however, showed uneven trends. Exports to China fell by 2.5% year-on-year to €16.7 billion, reflecting weaker demand from the world’s second-largest economy. Exports to Türkiye dropped 1.5%, while shipments to South Korea rose 6.6%, Japan 3.5%, India 7.7%, and Mexico 11.1%. On the import side, deliveries from Norway surged 13.8%, likely linked to energy and raw material flows.
Chemicals Sector Drives EU Surplus
Across the wider European Union, trade also improved markedly, with the bloc recording a €16.3 billion surplus in September—reversing a €4.5 billion deficit from August. This recovery was largely fueled by the chemicals sector, whose surplus expanded to €26.9 billion, up from €15.4 billion the previous month.
While chemical exports flourished, the surplus for machinery and vehicles narrowed slightly, falling from €16.4 billion to €13.8 billion. Compared with September 2024, the EU’s overall trade balance improved by €6.8 billion.
Despite the robust September performance, the year-to-date picture remains slightly below 2024 levels. From January to September 2025, the euro area recorded a surplus of €128.7 billion, down from €134.3 billion in the same period last year, while the EU’s surplus fell to €104.3 billion from €113 billion.
Challenges Ahead for the US-EU Deal
Although the trade agreement has boosted exports and investor confidence, experts caution that the deal may soon face its first major challenges. Bank of America economist Ruben Segura-Cayuela described the agreement as “a bad and unstable one” from the start, citing unresolved issues and a lack of clarity around key commitments.
Several critical elements, including EU tariff cuts on industrial goods, remain pending approval. Regulatory alignment—particularly in sensitive sectors such as energy, defense, and investment—also continues to pose complications.
Next week, the European Commission is expected to present a new implementation plan to Washington, aimed at clarifying these commitments. The effort underscores the institutional challenges Brussels faces in coordinating trade policies across member states and its limited capacity to enforce uniform follow-through.
With US authorities closely monitoring progress, the upcoming meetings will serve as a crucial test. Any delays or perceived backtracking from the EU could provoke a strong response from Washington, potentially reigniting the very trade tensions the summer agreement sought to resolve.